carleygarner
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Counter-trend Friday, can' we get follow-through Monday?
Treasuries were under pressure ahead of the non-farm payrolls data and the theme continued throughout the session despite slightly disappointing news. We use the term slightly because the numbers were poor, but weren't as poor as many traders had positioned for.
The government reported a loss of 125,000 jobs last month, with most of that being attributed to laid off census workers. The private sector managed to add 83,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 9.5% but the news isn't as optimistic as it seems given the fact that many have simply dropped out of the job-search category.
As we mentioned yesterday, although the markets have been dowsed with negative fundamentals, it is highly possible that the bad news is already priced into asset values. Accordingly, the market is vulnerable to a large correction as fresh buying dries up and longs take profits.
We favor a sell into rallies strategy for now, but this does not mean that you should be chasing the market lower. If you want to be a bear, make sure you enter at "good" prices. We see resistance just over 128 and then again near 130 (trend line which we prefer not to see). In the meantime, our first downside objective will be just over 125. If you are trading the note, look for resistance near 123, and then again at 123'20 (which we aren't counting on). The first downside target in the note will be just over 121.
Remember... He who goes forth on the 4th with a fifth, rarely goes forth on the fifth....
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.
June 29 - Clients were advised to sell the August 131 Bond calls for 26 or better
Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
Flat
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
[email protected]
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
Treasuries were under pressure ahead of the non-farm payrolls data and the theme continued throughout the session despite slightly disappointing news. We use the term slightly because the numbers were poor, but weren't as poor as many traders had positioned for.
The government reported a loss of 125,000 jobs last month, with most of that being attributed to laid off census workers. The private sector managed to add 83,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 9.5% but the news isn't as optimistic as it seems given the fact that many have simply dropped out of the job-search category.
As we mentioned yesterday, although the markets have been dowsed with negative fundamentals, it is highly possible that the bad news is already priced into asset values. Accordingly, the market is vulnerable to a large correction as fresh buying dries up and longs take profits.
We favor a sell into rallies strategy for now, but this does not mean that you should be chasing the market lower. If you want to be a bear, make sure you enter at "good" prices. We see resistance just over 128 and then again near 130 (trend line which we prefer not to see). In the meantime, our first downside objective will be just over 125. If you are trading the note, look for resistance near 123, and then again at 123'20 (which we aren't counting on). The first downside target in the note will be just over 121.
Remember... He who goes forth on the 4th with a fifth, rarely goes forth on the fifth....
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.
June 29 - Clients were advised to sell the August 131 Bond calls for 26 or better
Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
Flat
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
[email protected]
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
