Can We Easily Quantify Level Of Risk?

[Grey1]

Al motors,

The 95% figure is an old statistical measure of dispersion of data ..

Sounds complicated ? well not at all, John Bollinger's bands are based on this measure except that John uses close to measure dispersion and we use VWAP..

VWAP trading is an excellent bench mark to buy low sell high .. You see MM's can easily manipulate the close but they simply can 't fake VWAP because it take a huge participation of players to move VWAP even 1C in Stocks.
Closing price DO NOT REPRESENT THE REAL MARKET.. If you are a bargain hunter then donot look further than VWAP and not LOW /HIGH of X BAR ago....

Some data vendors offer VWAP as standard such as TOWNSEND realtick ,,, IB does not offer this quote but I know you can take a position based on VWAP using TWS...

 

[al-motor]

thanks for that grey-

will keep an eye out for the data..........Must say that i dont know too much about bollinger bands, but u are right- i know it has something to do with SD.

cheers

 

[stevet]

Bankbuster

if you spend a few years and everyday and every moment, watching the s&p moving, and its correlated markets, and know every nuance of how the underlying is composed, know how and why specialists and market makers manipulate price, understand data delivery and the effect of sentiment, etc etc, then you can be on step one of the ladder to accessing risk

 

[Trader333]

al-motor,

If you click this link it will show you an end of day (EOD) chart of the GBP x USD with Bollinger bands at a standard level that they are often set to.

It maybe useful as a start and you can always change the market being viewed.


Paul

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/...2=&STUDY3=&bardensity=LOW&size=SMALL&x=39&y=6

 

[Bankbuster]

Grey1,

Thanks for the definition of a low risk trade and I'm pleased to see that it is similar to my interpretation of low risk entry.

Stevet,

So your first step in assessing the risk is based on your experience in interpreting chart patterns, taking account of market sentiment and your awareness of market manipulation by MM's/specialists. What's the second step and the third.......etc.....What are the chart patterns you look for, how do you guage sentiment, can you explain the tricks that MM's/specialists get up to and how they can be best observed/monitored.

Regards, BB

 

[stevet]

Bankbuster

what i was trying to say is that there is not just one thing - there are a mulitude and only time is gonna let you get your head round it all - or at least build up to a point that when the market does what u do not want it to do - and that happens a lot! - so at least you understand why and can just jump with confidence to the opposite of the position you were just in

markets are moved by people with a lot of money and by those who are in a positon to move them - and they move the markets for their own reasons - the key is to try to understand those diverse reasons - so you can try to ride along with and not against those moves