Article Can the Market Predict a Recession?

T2W Bot

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Can the market predict a recession? A “yes” answer might seem tautological on the surface, but isn’t. A recession is technically a reduction in economic activity, rather than in stock prices. Rephrasing the question a little, is it possible to have, whether in the long term or the short, an environment of low stock prices and high real income (along with high industrial production and employment)? To the first part, certainly not if the population at large is relying on stock appreciation for its remuneration. But given that wages and salaries still make up the bulk of most people’s personal income, a bear market shouldn’t affect said income by all that much.
Information, Not Opinions The data isn’t hard to plot. Sustained reduction of growth (or negative growth, i.e. shrinkage) in real gross domestic product (GDP) over the last 4 years has no apparent correlation to movements in the Dow. For one thing, bear markets outnumber recessions. In the post war era there have been...
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The new wunder weapon to predict recessions is...………...the inverted yield curve.
It has got it right on the button for the last 3.
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