Are conditions ripe for a CHF carry trade?

Arbu

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I read recently that the Swiss tax office is having to stop taxpayers from paying their taxes early. The taxpayers want to do this because they get negative interest rates from leaving the money in the bank. But the tax office doesn't want these negative interest rates either so it refuses the money until it is actually due.

This seems ridiculous and surely it can't last. There must be tremendous temptation for Swiss taxpayers (and other people) to move their money out of CHF to avoid this, in essentially a carry trade based on negative interest rates. The EUR seems the obvious target. Moving CHF into EUR should depreciate the CHF. I note that the euro is indeed appreciating against the CHF, albeit rather slowly. I think this is going to continue so I plan to buy EUR/CHF. Let's see what happens.
 
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