2023 Market Forecast by Solidecn

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XAUUSD - Growth is possible.​

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will grow to the area of 1990 – 2050. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1782.23.

 

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EURUSD gathers the positive momentum​

The EURUSD pair provided slight negative trades yesterday to test the EMA50, noticing that stochastic gathers the positive momentum clearly, waiting to motivate the price to resume the main bullish trend, which targets 1.1030 as a next station.

Therefore, our bullish overview will remain valid for the upcoming period, noting that breaking 1.0845 might press on the price to test 1.0745 areas before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0800 support and 1.0970 resistance.​

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USDCAD breaks the support​

The USDCAD pair succeeded to break 1.3350 level and closed the daily candlestick below it, which supports the continuation of our bearish overview efficiently for the upcoming sessions, opening the way to head towards our next target that reaches 1.3205.

The EMA50 continues to support the suggested bearish wave, which will remain valid unless breaching 1.3350 and holding above it again. The expected trading range for today is between 1.3260 support and 1.3400 resistance.​

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NI 225 - Japan's stock market is actively recovering​

The quotes of the NI 225 stock index are correcting around 27372.0 after statements by the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda about the intention to continue the current ultra "dovish" monetary policy rate while maintaining the interest rate at a negative level. Several officials of the department also expressed the opinion that the easing of monetary incentives should be continued until the target inflation rate of 2.0% is reached. According to data published today, the consumer price index in Tokyo in January adjusted from 4.0% to 4.4%, which coincided with analysts' expectations, and the indicator excluding fresh food prices – from 4.0% to 4.3%, ahead of forecasts at 4.2%. At the same time, consumer inflation, excluding food and energy prices, slowed sharply from 2.7% to 1.7%, contrary to preliminary estimates of 2.8%. The growth of indicators in the metropolitan region usually acts as an indicator of the situation in the country as a whole, and most likely, the national index will also record negative dynamics, which, in turn, will confirm the increasing pressure on households.

On the daily chart, the price remains within the global sideways corridor, continuing to approach the resistance line, and the technical indicators hold the buy signal.

Support levels: 27000, 25700 | Resistance levels: 27550, 28400​

 

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Silver - Growth is possible.​

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the area of 26 – 27. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 22.64.

 

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Crude Oil - Growth is possible.​

If the assumption is correct, the asset will grow to the area of 93.25 – 100.5. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 76.50.

 

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EURUSD Tests the Moving Average​

The EURUSD pair continues to provide weak trades around the EMA50, noticing that stochastic attempts to provide positive signals, waiting to motivate the price to resume the bullish wave that targets 1.1030 as a next station.

Therefore, the positive scenario will remain active as long as 1.0845 level remains intact, reminding you that breaking this level will put the price under intraday pressure to test 1.0745 areas before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0800 support and 1.0960 resistance.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

GBPUSD Needs Strong Positive Motive​

The GBPUSD pair fluctuates within tight track since last Friday, settling above the EMA50 that forms good intraday support against the price, to keep our bullish overview that its targets start by breaching 1.2440 to open the way to head towards 1.2595.

On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1.2320 will push the price to achieve some intraday bearish correction before turning back to resume the main bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 1.2320 support and 1.2485 resistance.​

 

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EURJPY Begins to Decline​

The EURJPY pair surrendered to the frequent negative pressures to form new bearish waves and reach 140.55, approaching the first waited target.

Note that the moving average 55 crawl towards 141.80 and forming additional barrier will increase the speed of the bearish track, to expect crawling towards 139.80 soon, followed by repeating the pressure on the additional support 138.20. The expected trading range for today is between 141.35 and 139.80.​

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[SOLIDECN]

GBPCAD holds above the support​

The GBPCAD pair confirmed keeping the bullish attempts by providing new positive close above the minor bullish channel’s support line at 1.6470, to manage to renew the bullish rally and settle near 1.6555.

Now, stochastic attempt to provide the positive momentum allows us to suggest more positive attempts, to target 1.6680 level soon, while surpassing it will push the price to reach the additional stations at 1.6800 and 1.6930 levels. The expected trading range for today is between 1.6490 and 1.6680.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

NZDUSD Breaks the Support​

The NZDUSD pair broke the bullish channel’s support line clearly and turns to decline on the intraday basis, targeting visiting 0.6365 followed by 0.6275 levels as main negative targets.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be expected for today, and breaking 0.6430 will ease the mission of achieving the suggested targets, noting that breaching 0.6510 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to resume the main bullish track again. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6370 support and 0.6500 resistance.​

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[SOLIDECN]

Euro Area Q4 GDP Beats Estimates ​

Q4 GDP report from euro area just came out and turned out to be a positive surprise. Growth reached 0.1% QoQ while market expected a 0.1% QoQ drop. On annual basis, GDP growth reached 1.9% YoY (exp. 1.8% YoY), slightly slower than 2.1% YoY reported in Q3 2022. Simultaneously, Q4 GDP report from Italy was released and it also turned out to be better-than-expected. Italian GDP declined 0.1% QoQ in Q4 2022, but the market expected a 0.2% QoQ drop. On an annual basis growth reached 1.7% YoY (exp. 1.6% YoY).

However, in spite of being a positive surprise, reports did not have much of an impact. EURUSD barely moved while DE30 ticked lower.​

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[SOLIDECN]

GBPUSD Technical Analysis​

The GBPUSD pair trades negatively to break 1.2320 and attempts to hold below it, which urges caution from the upcoming trading and makes us prefer to stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to this level, as confirming the break will push the price to achieve bearish correction that its targets begin by testing 1.2155 and extend to 1.1940, while consolidating above it will reactivate the positive scenario that its targets begin by testing 1.2440.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.2250 support and 1.2400 resistance.​

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[SOLIDECN]

GBPCHF Begins to Decline​

The GBPCHF pair surrendered to the domination of the bearish bias by providing new negative close below 1.1480 resistance and start forming new negative waves by reaching 1.1280.

The negative stability below the moving average 55 and stochastic additional negative momentum signals confirm the continuation of the negativity, to expect suffering additional losses soon by targeting 1.1210 followed by repeating the pressure on the additional support 1.1105. The expected trading range for today is between 1.1340 and 1.1210.

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[SOLIDECN]

USDCHF Declines Again​

The USDCHF pair couldn’t hold for long time above 0.9240 level, to trade with strong negativity and reach 0.9160 level now, which puts the price under expected additional negative pressure in the upcoming period, targeting visiting the recently recorded low at 0.9085 as a next negative station.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be expected for today unless breaching 0.9240 and holding above it. The expected trading range for today is between 0.9085 support and 0.9210 resistance.​

 

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NZDUSD Still Negative​

The NZDUSD pair settles below the EMA50 that forms negative pressure against the price, to keep the bearish trend active, waiting to head towards 0.6365 as a first target. Stochastic provides negative signals that support the expected decline, reminding you that the continuation of the bearish wave depends on the price stability below 0.6510.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6370 support and 0.6480 resistance.​

 

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XRPUSD - The Pair is in a State of Uncertainty​

Experts associate the downward correction, which is common for most digital assets, with the expectation of today's results of the US Federal Reserve meeting: the market is ready to soften the "hawkish" rhetoric, but investors are afraid to hear hints that the monetary policy tightening cycle will last a long time, so they remain calm and are in no hurry to buy risky assets.

The growth of quotations is hindered by the uncertainty associated with the suit of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple, the verdict on which should be issued soon: the agency accuses the company of issuing an unregistered security (XRP token) and illegally distributing it in the amount of 1.3B dollars. Separate claims concern the management of the corporation: the company's CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, and its co-founder Chris Larsen, who, according to officials, received 600.0M dollars from the sale of their own coins. Investors were alarmed by the appointment of Monica Long, who previously held the position of general manager, to the post of president of Ripple: analysts believe that the current management of the company allows the outcome of the trial to be negative for her and seeks to prevent chaos in management in the event of serious legal consequences for Garlinghouse and Larsen.

Currently, the trading instrument is around the middle line of Bollinger bands. If it consolidates below it, as well as 0.3906 (Murrey level [8/8]), the decline may continue to 0.3662 (Murrey level [7/8]), 0.3418 (Murrey [6/8]). Consolidation above 0.4150 (Murrey level [+1/8]) will give rise to 0.4395 (Murrey level [+2/8], Fibonacci retracement 23.6%), 0.4750.

Resistance levels: 0.415, 0.4395, 0.475 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3662, 0.3418​

 

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Chart of the Day EURGBP​

EURGBP is one of major currency pairs that may see some more volatile moves today. This is because the Bank of England and European Central Bank are scheduled to announce monetary policy decisions at 12:00 pm GMT and 1:15 pm GMT, respectively. Both are expected to deliver 50 basis point rate hikes.

While ECB members have been quite vocal about the fact that a 50 basis point rate hike is appropriate for today's meeting, recent cycle pause from BoC and slowdown from Fed raises questions whether ECB will alter its approach. A 50 bp rate move looks like a done deal and should the ECB commit to another 50 bp rate hike in March, EUR may benefit. A 50 bp rate hike and a hint that pace of rate increases will slow going forward would be EUR-negative and may support European stock market indices.

On the other hand, things look less rosy when it comes to the Bank of England. The UK economy is facing a recession and BoE knows it very well. Higher interest rates are magnifying the so-called "cost of living crisis" in the United Kingdom and while another rate hike could help combat inflation, Bank of England is facing an increasing public backlash over its tightening. Having said that, there is a scope for a dovish surprise with BoE going in with a 25 basis point rate hike.

Taking a look at EURGBP chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair has managed to climb above the 0.8880 resistance zone today and has even briefly traded at the highest level since late-September 2022. If ECB provides more fuel for the upward move by hinting at another 50 bp rate hike in March, the pair may look towards the 0.8990 swing area that was tested a few times in the 2019-2020 period and marks a local high from late-September 2022. A dovish Bank of England would also support a bullish scenario on the pair.​

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[SOLIDECN]

EURUSD Hits the Target​

The EURUSD pair rallied upwards strongly to succeed achieving our waited target at 1.1030, moving within major bullish channel that supports the chances of achieving more rise in the upcoming period, noting that breaching the mentioned level will extend the bullish wave to reach 1.1185 areas.

Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain suggested on the intraday and short term basis, noting that failing to breach 1.1030 might force the price to rebound bearishly and achieve some intraday bearish correction before turning back to rise again. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0950 support and 1.1110 resistance.​

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FTSE 100 - The stock market is waiting for the decision of the Bank of England on the interest rate​

The UK stock market is correcting against the backdrop of yesterday's data, which reflected a decrease in inflation in the eurozone in January by 0.4%, which provoked a slowdown in consumer prices in annual terms from 9.2% to 8.5%. In turn, the Core CPI in monthly terms amounted to -0.8%, and in annual terms remained at the level of 5.2%. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England are meeting today and are projected to raise their interest rates from 2.00% to 2.50% and from 3.50% to 4.00% respectively, which is the main factor exerting current pressure on stock market quotes.

On the daily chart, the index quotes continue corrective growth, remaining in the middle of the rising channel, and the technical indicators are holding a buy signal in preparation for its strengthening.

Support levels: 7730, 7530 | Resistance levels: 7850, 8000​

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