2023 Market Forecast by Solidecn

[SOLIDECN]

GBPUSD Within Sideways Track​

The GBPUSD pair fluctuates within sideways track recently as appears on the chart, and the EMA50 continues to press negatively on the price, to keep the correctional bearish trend active, waiting to visit 1.1950 mainly.

On the other hand, we should note that breaching 1.2135 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to regain the main bullish trend again and head to achieve gains that start by visiting 1.2235 areas.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1980 support and 1.2150 resistance.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDJPY Resumes the Main Bearish Track​

The USDJPY pair faced strong negative pressures in the previous sessions to return to the main bearish channel, and begins today with additional decline to break 130 barrier and open the way to continue the bearish bias on the intraday and short term basis, making the bearish trend dominant in the upcoming sessions, and we expect to target 128.90 followed by 127.85 levels as next main stations.

The EMA50 supports the expected decline, which will remain valid unless breaching 130.55 and holding above it, as breaching this level might push the price to test 132.35 areas initially before any new negative attempt.

The expected trading range for today is between 128.60 support and 130.50 resistance​

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDCAD Begins Negatively ​

The USDCAD pair found solid resistance around 1.3600, to rebound downwards strongly now, on its way to turn to decline and head to achieve negative targets that start by testing 1.3500 and extend to 1.3405 after breaking the previous level.

Therefore, we expect to witness more bearish bias today supported by the negative signals provide by stochastic, taking into consideration that breaching 1.3620 will stop the current negative pressure and push the price to 1.3680 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.3460 support and 1.3600 resistance.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

BTCUSD - Uncertainty remains in the crypto market​

The BTCUSD pair started the first week of the new year with a moderate attempt at growth and reached the middle line of the Bollinger Bands around 16800. Market activity remains subdued due to the loss of investor confidence in digital assets after the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange.

Currently, experts are trying to predict the dynamics of "digital gold" in the coming year, but there is no consensus on this issue: according to preliminary estimates, the value of BTC can rise to 250,0K dollars per coin or fall to 10,0K. Nevertheless, most experts are inclined to believe that serious price jumps should not be expected, and the overall situation of the sector will remain rather negative. Pressure on it will continue to be exerted by the course of tightening monetary policy taken by the world's leading central banks, aiming to significantly reduce inflation, and the growth of activity of regulators seeking to limit the activities of crypto companies, thus ensuring greater protection of investors' capital. The main hopes for significant growth are associated with 2024, when a reversal of the policy of the US Fed is expected and the beginning of a significant reduction in interest rates, as well as another halving of BTC, which traditionally has a positive effect on the price of the first cryptocurrency.

As for the mid−term outlook, the BTCUSD pair is likely to continue trading within the sideways range of 17500 − 16250 (Murray levels [6/8]-[5/8]). Now the price is testing the middle line of the Bollinger Bands 16800, when consolidated above which it will be able to rise to 17500 (Murray level [6/8]) and 19100 (Fibo retracement 23.6%). The key for the "bears" is the level of 16250 (Murray [5/8], the lower line of the Bollinger Bands), the breakdown of which will increase the prospects for the downward movement of the trading instrument to the area of 15700 (the area of November lows) and 15000 (Murray [4/8]).

Resistance levels: 16800, 17500, 19100 | Support levels: 16250, 15700, 15000​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Gold Technical Analysis​

Gold price faces negative pressure now, to head towards potential test to the key support 1824.50, affected by stochastic negativity, while the EMA50 continues to provide the positive support to the price, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid conditioned by the price stability above the mentioned support and the most important above 1812.25, reminding you that our waited targets begin at 1850 and extend to 1900.

The expected trading range for today is between 1830 support and 1865 resistance.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Crude Oil Technical Analysis​

Crude oil price approached our waited target at 81.60 but it bounced downwards strongly to reach the key support 78.93, which urges caution from the upcoming trading, as continuing the negative pressure and breaking this level will stop the correctional bullish trend and push the price to suffer new losses on the intraday basis, while consolidating above it will lead the price to test 81.60 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 78.60 support and 82.00 resistance.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

AUDUSD - The instrument is updating record highs​

During the Asian session, the Australian dollar is actively adding in value, developing a "bullish" trend, which was formed on December 23. At the moment, the AUD/USD pair is testing 0.6830 for a breakout and updating local highs from December 15.

Significant support for the instrument today is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Thus, the Manufacturing PMI, published by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and S&P Global, rose from 50.4 points to 56.9 points in December, which turned out to be much better than analysts' neutral forecasts. Buying activity was also supported by the December data from China, where the Caixin Manufacturing PMI slowed down from 49.4 points to 49.0 points, while traders were counting on 48.8 points.

Meanwhile, experts are counting the profits from the Christmas and New Year sales, and according to Bloomberg, consumer demand on the eve of the holidays not only did not decrease, but also amounted to a record 74.5 billion Australian dollars. On Boxing Day, sales increased 15.3% compared to a year earlier, reaching 1.23 billion Australian dollars. Thus, the "hawkish" policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in terms of raising the interest rate, which is already at 3.1%, does not yet exert significant pressure on buying activity; however, the regulator noted that it would monitor consumer behavior when determining its further course.

The growth of the AUD/USD pair at the beginning of the year is also due to expectations of further easing of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. The market expects two interest rate hikes in the range of 25-50 basis points this year, after which the regulator is likely to try to take a wait-and-see attitude to analyze the results of the steps already taken.

Resistance levels: 0.685, 0.69, 0.695, 0.7 | Support levels: 0.68, 0.675, 0.67, 0.6628​

 

[SOLIDECN]

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Indices Trim Gains in the Early Afternoon​

European stock market indices and US index futures erased part of today's gains over the past hour. Earlier, gains were reasoned with lower than expected CPI readings for December from German states but it was driven mostly by one-off factors related to gas payments. Reading for the whole Germany will be released at 1:00 pm GMT today and, given surprises in state readings, may show a downside surprise. Such an outcome could be positive for indices as it would give ECB more room to be flexible when it comes to policy tightening. On the other hand, it should be noted that state reading have not shown a similar deceleration in core inflation as it either ticked slightly lower or stayed unchanged.

US30 dropped around 0.6% from a daily higher but still continues to trade 0.4% higher on the day. A potential trend line, marked with recent local lows, is being tested right now.



DE30 continues to trade around 1% higher but trades 0.8% off daily high. DE30 trades slightly above a key support zone in the 14,200 pts area. Apart from lower headline inflation figures from Germany, indices in Europe are also supported by steep drop in gas price which now trade near €75/MWh. On the other hand, should core German inflation surprise to the upside, indices may start to struggle.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

EURUSD - The possibility of growth remains.​

On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level A has completed, in which the fifth wave (5) of A has appeared and the upward wave B is developing. At the moment, the construction of the first wave 1 of (A) of B continues, in which the third wave of the lower level iii of 1 has formed and the development of a local correction as the fourth wave iv of 1 is observed.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will rise to the area of 1.1 – 1.1196. The level of 1.0485 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

 

[SOLIDECN]

GBPJPY Under the Negative Pressure​

The GBPJPY pair ended yesterday by touching 155.35 level, to approach the previously waited target followed by bouncing temporarily towards 157, noting that the bearish track will remain valid depending on 158.70 level forming additional barrier, to expect gathering the additional negative momentum by reaching 155 level followed by attempting to press on the historical support at 154.55.

Any attempt to rally above the mentioned barrier might lead to postpone the negative attack and start the correctional bullish track again, to target 160 as a first correctional station. The expected trading range for today is between 157.6 and 154.6.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDCHF - The possibility of growth remains.​

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 is developing, in which the ascending first wave (1) of 3 appeared and the downward correction ended as the second wave (2) of 3. At the moment, wave C of (2) has ended and wave (3) of 3 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the upward dynamics of the USDCHF pair will continue to the area of 0.9900 – 1.0151. The level of 0.9195 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

 

[SOLIDECN]

EURJPY Takes Breath​

The EURJPY pair started to form intraday sideways trades by consolidating near 138.2 level, attempting to take a breath after suffering additional losses yesterday and touching 137.40 target.

We remind you that forming continuous barrier at 138.8 and getting negative momentum by the major indicators will reinforce the domination of the bearish bias for the upcoming period, to keep waiting to resume the negative attack and attempt to reach 136.55 that forms the next target for the negative trades.

The expected trading range for today is between 138.80 and 137.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

ETHUSD - Technical analysis​

This week, the price has attempted to grow and is currently actively testing the level of 1250 (Murray level [2/8]), consolidation above which will allow the cryptocurrency to return to the mark of 1325 and try to leave the long-term descending channel to rise to the area of 1500 (Murray level [4/8]). Otherwise, the downward dynamics will increase to the levels of 1090, 1000 (Murray level [0/8]) and 875 (Murray level [-1/8]).

Technical indicators allow for the resumption of a smooth decline: the Bollinger Bands are reversing downwards, the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone, and the Stochastic is approaching the overbought zone, which can become a catalyst for the reversal of the trading instrument down.

Resistance levels: 1250, 1325, 1500 | Support levels: 1090, 1000, 875​

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[SOLIDECN]

AUDUSD Technical Analysis​

The AUDUSD pair rallied upwards strongly to approach our waited positive target at 0.6905, and we suggest the continuation of the bullish bias to visit 0.7 areas on the near term basis, to keep the bullish trend scenario active unless breaking 0.6767 and holding below it.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6820 support and 0.6910 resistance.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

NZDUSD - The price is in a correction, a fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) formed, a downward correction ended as the wave (B), and the development of the wave (C) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (C) has formed, and a local correction is developing as the second wave ii of 1 of (C), within which the wave (c) of ii is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.6008 – 0.5890. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6383.

 

[SOLIDECN]

AUDUSD - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, a downward correction ended as the second wave (2), and the development of the third wave (3) started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) develops. Now, the wave (iii) of i has developed, a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of i, and the wave (v) of i is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will grow to the area of 0.7040–0.7142. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6681.

 

[SOLIDECN]

Gold Price Gathers Positive Momentum​

Gold price continues to rise, organized inside new bullish channel that appears on the chart, noticing that stochastic gets rid of its negative momentum gradually, waiting to motivate the price to resume the bullish wave that its next target located at 1900. Therefore, our bullish overview will remain valid and active unless breaking 1820.50 and holding below it.

The expected trading range for today is between 1840 support and 1875 resistance.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Chart of the day - US500​

FOMC minutes released yesterday have been rather hawkish with the document noting that US central bankers do not expect rate cuts in 2023. It also noted that while progress has been made in bringing inflation back under control, more rate hikes are needed although a slower pace may be adequate. Release can be seen as hawkish but no major long-lasting market reaction occurred in the aftermath. This can be reasoned with the fact that FOMC minutes have only repeated what the market has already known and has already been pricing in.

Taking a look at US500 chart at H4 interval, we can see that the index has been struggling to launch a larger move in either direction as of late. US500 has been trading in a 3,800 - 3,920 pts range since mid-December, awaiting catalyst for the next bigger move. While today's ADP employment report at 1:15 pm GMT is unlikely to be such a catalyst, tomorrow's NFP data may be source of elevated volatility.​

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[SOLIDECN]

Crude Oil Price Hits the Extended Target​

Crude oil price succeeded to achieve our main waited target at 73.30 and fluctuates near it, and we believe that the way is open to achieve more decline in the upcoming sessions, to head towards visiting the recently recorded low at 70.30 as a next main target. Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain suggested on the intraday and short term basis, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, noting that breaching 74.20 will push the price to achieve intraday gains that target testing 75.63 before any new attempt to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 71.50 support and 75 resistance.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDJPY achieves new gains​

The USDJPY pair rallied upwards yesterday to breach the bearish channel’s resistance and settles above it, to hint the attempt to recover on the intraday basis, but we notice that stochastic shows clear negative signals that put the price under negative pressure now, to face contradiction between the technical indicators that makes us prefer to stay aside until we get clearer signal for the next trend.
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Note that continuing the rise and breaching 133.30 will lead the price to turn to the bullish trend and achieve gains that start at 134.50, while breaking 131.75 support will push the price back to the bearish track to head towards visiting 128.90 on the near term basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 131.30 support and 132.30 resistance.​

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