I'm expecting a bounce from 1.3113 or even from 1.3160 up to 1.3352 (good place to short). Now the price is already to low to short (high risk) so I will wait for the pullback.
Look like USD/CAD reversed at 1.3664 in early January and is now aiming for 1.3213. I said reverse and not a downward correction due to the sharp and extended downward move. So for me I'm only looking to short.
I fully agree with your assessment and later today we will have nonfarm payrolls (NFP) which brings volatility into the market. Analysts expect an addition of 177k jobs to the headline NFP figure.
I think that crude oil has hit a support zone at 42.36 and should begin a consolidation for a couple of months before beginning the next trend. So the USD/CAD should also stay in a range bound between 1.3600 up to 1.3683.
It seems that 97.530 will be the high of 2018 and since November it has been in a choppy sideways trading action. Looks like is not going anywhere soon.
Now is testing the 1.1400 level and looks like is getting ready to pop to the upside toward 1.1500. Let's see what the Fed will bring to the table later today.