Recent content by Warren534

I'm short OTM bear call spreads, and long OTM (now ITM) bear put spreads, all in October e-mini options. Looking for a 1825 test in the next 2 weeks, but ultimately 1505.

Absolutely. Detailed studies indicate about 84% probability of profit, while mathematically it should be about 68%. This is a huge edge. Transaction costs should be less than 1 tick.

I would think so. I use Optionsxpress and Thinkorswim, and this is a complete non-issue. ITM options will be automatically exercised at expiration, so if you are still holding a ITM call, you can just sell the futures contract on expiration day, and the positions will offset each other.

Yes, but heading down to 1500 when 1821 breaks. I expect 1500 to be reached by December 2016.

Selling 1 SD option strangles with high IVR. Strong statistical edge, as IV is overstated.

I'm a futures and futures options trader. I look at 30 minute charts for the last 10-15 trading days, in 27 markets, and identify price and time inflection points. I then project those forward for the next 1-2 days. Basic Newtonian laws of motion, reaction/retracement levels. I identify the...

1. How old are you? 50 2. How often do you trade on average? Daily, weekly or yearly Daily 3. How long have you been trading? 29 years, since 1986 4. How were you introduced to online trading? Natural progression from hanging out at my broker's office, to using their website 5. What is your...

Selling a put is a bullish position. No, you certainly don't need to own the stock. A short put is identical to a covered call, where you buy stock and sell a call.

Check the price of the put at the same strike. The deep ITM call should trade for the intrinsic value, plus the value of the put. If you offer the call at a couple of ticks less than that, you will almost certainly get filled. Otherwise, you should be able to sell futures for virtually no...

Nothing new to report today. My short ADM10 position moved favorably, and my short YIK10 position moved against me. No changes to my orders, as no alert or stop levels were hit. Over the years, I have collected many books on trading, and have 129 in ebook format. I've posted a spreadsheet with...

Update for today, with revised orders based on today's closing prices. Current positions unchanged from earlier this afternoon: 1) Short 2 YIK10 (mini silver)@ 17.245. Target exit @ 16.09, stop @ 17.67. Margin $4,860, risk $850, reward $2,310. 2) Short 1 ADM10 @ 9082. Target exit @ 8845, stop @...

Haven't posted in a few days, but am ready to get back to it. My wife is 14 weeks pregnant (2nd child), and we just had a miscarriage scare / false alarm, but everything is fine now. Between work and personal time constraints, I've decided to cease the intraday trading from the 4 hour charts...

Been a busy day at work, and I haven't had time post. I updated my analysis / order spreadsheet, and am posting below. Still short JYM10, canceled my order on TYM10 as it got to the target without me. New long position in YGM10, and short positions in SFM10 and YIK10. Sell orders in on E7M10...

SP500 and E-mini SP500 Index futures trade almost around the clock, with only a few minutes close. Details at cmegroup.com

Absolutely. By definition of the rules, D-E must be greater than A-E or A-B.