Recent content by triax

Rohypnol :?:

Those of us cursed by the inability to travel through time use it to analyse past market behaviour in an occasionally-successful attempt to find non-random stuff happening which may repeat itself in the future. I trust that will answer almost none of your questions.

But trendie, it must have escaped your attention that one of the posters is in bridegwater somerset, whereas the other is in "milano", so they clearly cannot in any way be related. :rolleyes: That's a brilliant name. Is he a porn star in his spare time?

D4F started rejecting my orders, ultimately making it impossible to trade - but only after (very soon after) I started being consistently profitable. Before that they were quite happy to put my orders through instantly, safe in the knowledge that I didn't know my **** from my elbow.

OK if the target was, within the context of your timeframe, some distance away (say 3 or more x ATR) and you were therefore using a hefty reward:risk ratio then you might be in with a shout - because you'd be relying on the 'fat tails' distribution of market returns which says that relatively...

You're assuming a move to your target will happen 50% of the time - but your target is twice as far away as your stop. WIth your random entry the expectation, disregarding costs, would be : (0.33 * x) - (0.667 * x/2) = 0

Uh oh.

You may be confusing inability with unwillingness, but anyway, I'll leave you to it; I did not intend to come across as mean-spirited (though on reflection I may have done - mea culpa). Seriously, Merry Christmas to you as well.

My mind is reeling with sarcastic replies. But it's Christmas, and if nothing else Mr. Vector I can honestly say your posts make me smile. Can I perhaps suggest you don't take yourself quite so seriously in the New Year? Best of luck to you and all.

OK. Hmmmm.........are you going to be a kind of flying doctor? Performing experiments on diseased babies in mid-air? Sounds brilliant, sign me up.

The thing is, each trader needs to define them for him/herself. A stock/future/whatever might make a new high, and start to pull back. This pattern might after a period of time meet your definition of a reversal, and my definition of a retracement; and we might both trade them as such...

...though it doesn't have volume data, unfortunately.

Are you saying that it is not possible to back-test the methods put forward in the book?

This is a good thread on ET for anyone who wants to find systems that have an edge, as opposed to those which are curve-fitted to past data : http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=33654&perpage=6&pagenumber=1 Do a search for posts by the same guy who started the thread and...

Right. With a bit of luck I might get to 'stand next to' my girlfriend tonight.