Recent content by Trader Skillset

USDJPY Wave Count Recall the sentiment when oil hit $26/barrel. It was, "the Canadian dollar is doomed on the back of lower commodity prices." Fast forward a few months, and commodities are the best performing asset class of 2016, so far. It's now becoming common knowledge that the yen is a...

USDCAD Wave Count We continue to think lower in USDCAD, but it's not with much conviction. The reason is that we could see a range type of environment develop over the coming months to set-up the next big move. So, a larger B wave is possible with prices bottoming not much lower than current...

NZDUSD Wave Count Here too, it seems that we'll see another push higher prior to a resumption of the down trend. Thursday's push to a new high was accompanied by a Sustainable Bull reading, which means Friday's decline is likely a correction that will lead to another wave higher. But, we still...

AUDUSD Wave Count We thought that wave 2 might be contained by the down trendline, but that was off base. Wave 2 retraced 50% of wave 1, and the only question is if the corrective rally is over. Wave 2 would look better with one more new high, but with Thursday's reversal and Friday's follow...

GBPUSD Wave Count Last week's failed rally in the pound leaves it under pressure. While we may remain range bound until the coming vote on 6/23, the action up from the wave (3) low is a very clear three wave, corrective rally. Last week saw prices close below two up trendlines and while some...

EURUSD Wave Count We suggested that the 61.8% Fibo level would be helpful to the bearish case if our top count was correct. Indeed, the sharp reversal from that level keeps our top count intact. Now, we can use the wave 2 high as our risk control for both trading, and our top count. Should...

USDJPY Wave Count Speaking of listening to the market, we won't ignore the message in USDJPY. The failure below the April high leaves yet another lower high on the chart. No Sustainable Bull reading from daily RSI suggests lower still into an ugly looking wave 5 diagonal, or some other pattern...

USDCAD Wave Count We now have what looks like a completed wave B with the significant turn down Friday. We're either headed lower directly in C, or potentially an (x) wave in a larger B. Both call for lower prices near term, and we can hold a bearish view against Thursday's high. There was no...

NZDUSD Wave Count The action down from the wave C high looks like a three wave correction that's complete, given the blast higher last week. As such, without an immediate downside reversal that takes out the wave X? low, we're going with the above view. That view certainly questions our other...

AUDUSD Wave Count Prices only tested the lows prior to the upside reversal, but we continue to think Aussie is headed lower, and potentially a lot lower. We have a five wave impulse down from the wave (B) high, and prices are now back into trendline and structural resistance. We do need to...

GBPUSD Wave Count It's possible that the pound is going to seek higher prices, but we're not going to flip to that view yet. Prices have repeatedly turned back down from near the red horizontal line, and this one seems to end that way too. Look for prices to finish off some final subdivisions...

EU Banks For example, take a look at the following charts of three European banks, DB, CS and BBVA: With all three, their consolidations point lower, and potentially much lower. All of these consolidations happened in an economic environment that has been at least benign. Should economic...

EURUSD Wave Count The trendline offered more support than we thought it would. Still, we see the bounce as a corrective wave 2 with either Friday's high wave iii of (c) of 2, or that we should see that top early week. Any push past the 61.8% retracement will begin to argue that something less...

You're very welcome! The Wolf

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