This guy doesn't hold any positions overnight. I noticed that he most of the trades are opened and closed between late Asian session to London close. Only on a few occasions has he closed his positions in the next Asian session. He is 100% out of the market over the weekends. Redemption...
Agree that it is best to have a "system basket" which will smooth out returns of individual components. e.g. intermediate term trend-following coupled with short-term trend-fading.
In choppy markets, the price is usually whipsawing between extreme overbought/oversold levels. Systems based on...
1. I checked the trade by trade statement and cross-checked with the metrics. I don't think it is cooked. Plus I re-calculated the metrics by hand and by calculator. I too was expecting an inverse relationship.
2. How do you calculate exposure % for a fund that uses leverage? FM risks about...
1. This is how the FM calculates:
Profit Factor: Gross Profit/Gross Loss
Hit Rate: Winning Trades/(Winning+Losing Trades)
2. Can the lower returns be attributed to his "Profit Ratio" being < 1?
Profit Ratio = Average Profit per Winning Trade / Average Loss per Losing Trade
Profit Ratio = 0.39...
Fatowl,
I asked the FM about the strategy: without revealing specifics, he said he trades like an institutional order-flow stop-hunter.
My concern is this - is it a valid strategy on a long-term basis? How do I classify this (for performance benchmarking against peers using similar...
Brumby,
I checked with the FM. The figure (annual return) currently stands at 25.42%. The FM prefers to "understate" annual returns rather than "overstate".:D
1. What you're saying makes sense. And I'm the investor actually.
2. How would you go about evaluating a new fund. Surely, there are many startup funds like PE, VC and hedge funds that raise capital without a long track record. How can I separate the wheat from the chaff? :)
Thanks for your response fatowl!
0. I am actually looking to invest in this fund along with some friends. How many min. trades and min. months/years does it take to be statistically significant? The backtested data (over a period of 2-3 years prior to going live) shows similar results.
1...
I went through systematic FX fund disclosure doc. It went live quite recently - in Feb 2013. As on June 2013,
Style: High Frequency Trading Algorithm
Instrument: EUR/USD
Profit Factor: 6.48
Hit (Success) Ratio: 94.34%
Expectation: +13.48%
Target Annual Returns: 18-22%
Max DD: 0.30%
Total Trades...
Hi, Matt here. I'm a forex trader since 2004. I primarily trade the majors. Interested in connecting with talented traders, coders and quants/modelers. TC!