Recent content by mattblackman

Like making a trade, getting in is the easiest part. It's knowing when to quit that's the hard part and there is about a 95% chance or better that you won't make it. The reward is that those who do make the cut and are able to maintain success, join a club where membership is quite exclusive...

S&P Housing Market Index (SPHOME) ------------------------ Yes and take a look at either the S&P Home Builders Index shown here or the Philadelphia Housing Index (HGX). Bearish as hell with the head & shoulders top confirmed in April 06. SPHOME weekly is currently showing a bearish pennant...

Part 2 was posted on Aug 14-06 at http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/articles/general_articles/canary-correction-two/page1

The news this week (Aug 25) showed that the housing market in the US has continued to deteriorate much more rapidly than those in the soft landing camp believed possible. I see this single factor as one of the greatest risks facing the US and global economies going forward....

I have two concerns about derivatives. 1) The speed at which funds have flowed into them in the last few years. Normally this rate of inflow has been followed by a major correction in other markets that have experienced this rapid an increase. 2) The rate of change of inflows is now declining...