Recent content by macbonzo

Does anyone one trade this regularly: futures or options. Plainly the nature of the market has changed in terms of the sustained jump in volatility. The 8 year buy the dip approach no longer works

Yes I had a sell sign two. I've covered at a small profit, largely because, I hate FOMC days, as they seem so much of a gamble. Certainly the oil price continues to fall and the A/D line looks strong, but who knows what the statement will say or indeed what the market's reaction will be. I feel...

I really love the crude/gasoline/distillate figures on Wednesdays. Today we have the government figures: DOE Crude -1.1m Gasolines -3.2m Distillates -200k then API industry figures: Crude +5.6m Gasolines -3.14m Distillates +45k...

I'm out the market at the moment on this one. The phrase "don't try this at home kids springs to mind". Clearly NG can be very volatile but to jump from a low of 5.52 to 8.30ish in a few trading sessions is quite scary. Anyone knew that moving into the hurricane season would likely have meant...

There has certainly been quite a lot of short - covering on this. I was long on the Aug contract a week last Monday at 6.16. It fell all the way back to 5.52 and has rallied up to 7.30 today. I think that a couple of weeks of low inventories (we had a 7bcf draw today) plus the thought of another...

Yes I do. Obviously depends on your timescale, but I would expect this to be broken in the next few weeks, at most. Leaving aside technical reasons, NYMEX is hitting more highs and I think $80 is a certainty very soon. If earnings are disappointing we could see some considerable downward action...

There are many trading styles and trading objectives, but I have never come across anyone who could be consistently profitable using 2 point stops on the YM. I use 20 point stops on the YM and 2 point stops on the Emini S&P and most people reckon these stops are pretty tight. Another point is...

Let me stick my neck out here and say that this looks like capitulation. I think we will finish above here by the end of the day. Clearly the lows of 1245 had to be taken out on the S&P and the Dow is back where it was at the start of the year. Irrespective, I hope everyone is using stops...

Hence why you have the trading edge. Look what happened to that Icarus chappie!

I think you are right. Yesterday's action was quite interesting. Despite what the FOMC said, we rallied towards the end of the day. It was quite conceivable that we could have fallen back to a negative position. With May out of the way, I can see some fresh money coming into the market. I also...

I don't want to sound rude in any way at all, but I have noticed a bit of a glut of US traders flying over to London at the moment. Many people on these boards will have been through the "going to courses" stage of their trading careers and have discovered that, you really have to do the work...

Well the VIX is way up at 18.4 again. Yesterday's selloff seemed pretty orderly (almost as if no one wanted to buy), but all 30 of the Dow components were negative. You tend to find that, in the last days of the month, hedge funds sell in the direction of the market (down). I would think...

$SOX is on its knees again. One of the best gauges to market direction (especially in volatile conditions) is the $SOX. If it can't rally, the broader market will struggle. I'm looking for a repeat of yesterday with a low in somewhere between 4.30 and 6.30

VIX 19! 8 days ago it was 12. This market has certainly fallen out of bed.

Yes indeed the Dow has to go into near meltdown for a suspension to occur. However for the much broader NYSE, trading curbs kick in much sooner (as we saw yesterday). It means that institutions cannot put through programme sell trades. This mainly relates to arb funds.