Recent content by Johnnyalpha8

Ok, I assume you are saying that the only unbiased kind of forward testing is using real time data, not some past set of 'out of sample data', that the tester may or may not know how it behaves before the test. Fair enough. But, I digress.My point is that 'if' the backtest contained no curve...

We seem to be at cross-definitions. By your definition, which equates to (placing trades with live capital after your back testing is over) you are correct, forward testing cannot be avoided. What I mean by 'forward testing' performing more 'simulated' trades on an out of data sample.

I'd say that forward testing is only necessary if you have optimised your key idea after the initial backtest.

I would just say to backtest, backtest and backtest. #1 See for yourself whether your system can be profitable minus commissions and slippage. #2 See for yourself that your account can withstand any losses the market throws at you by considering the maximum draw-down before you fund your...

'Trading' is such a general term, and could mean anything. Some more specific questions would be:- #1 Does the stock-market have an upward bias over the long term? Yes. #2 Is the 'Turtle trading system' gambling (does it produce random results). No. Both of these answers are backed up by...

It's probably best to watch it directly on youtube, and make it fullscreen.

This is my variation of the Elder Impulse system. The set-up is;- Market:YM Time-frame:15mins Entry: Rising 130ema, rising 8ema, ADX above 25, go long when MACD histogram starts to rise as soon as that MACD bar closes. Exit:8ema falling and MACD histogram starts to fall. Also use a 100 point...

Just coded his 'pristine' long fractals into a preliminary backtest......the timeframe was 3 mins...The result was ....not so good. Re-reading his book 'Trading Chaos' Bill does concede on pg 154 that on intraday time-frames using fractals is 'cumbersome'.He then advises that the fractals work...

I've just read Bill Williams' book 'Trading Chaos'. It is a PA only system. Is any one familiar with his work? Or does any one have any experience trading his system? Cheers(:

You have to watch out for those 'stop-hunters', right along with the tooth-fairy and the boogey-man. I'm sure they all really exist!!:)

Are you a hardcore PAA only guy?

Zutou, are you Japanese?

If you want a decent system using MACD, check out Alexander Elder's Impulse System. It works for me. I use it on the E-mini's with a 15 minute chart, an ADX over 25, and a rising 130ema as a long filter/ falling 130ema as a short filter. It's a beautiful system.

I should point out that the week of the month filter does not render the system unprofitable when removed. But the day of the week filter seems to be significant. The t test seems to verify that the system is real and tradable t=8.45. Bullowski's 500 stock, 5 year test gives me some confidence...