Recent content by jerry2dt

Fascinating to watch a couple of academics chat about probabilities, skew, etc. I'm just a daily trader who relies on the odds and so am not that surprised when my trade which has a 95% statistical chance of success goes against me 5% of the time, more or less. But it's only when it gaps that I...

Yes, and I do those trades also. It works just fine until the underlying gaps beyond the one or two deviations and wipes out what you've gained in the past 20 trades. A 5% chance is after all, a 1 in 20 probability. It has happened to me in the past year. Gotta watch for those outliers on the...

I have been experimenting with short strangles in real time trades and currently have had one on for the past 10 days, expiring next Fri., but may take it off sooner. The legs are 2 SD's wide now because I took every chance to push them out, taking profits and losses as necessary. This am one on...

No takers? No simulators out there? TOS paper trading? Nobody like beer??? Jerry

There is a real easy way to test her method. Just sell a SPY strangle with say, APR2 155Px10 and 159Cx12 for $824 less comm. Close to even Deltas outside of 1SD so 80% chance of success. Adjust it as the next 11 days goes by if necessary and enjoy the fact that there is only a 10% chance of loss...

She doesn't "bill" herself as supertrader, Tastytrade did.

My experience also re the +2% monthly. I have always been enamored of selling time and volatility (aka short). No reliance on directional at all as after 30+yrs of trying every tech indicator and then some. Seems to work for John Carter, just not me. Why else would deltas at the money be 50%? If...

Jerry Cochran here and glad to have found this site. I've been trading options for quite awhile but just got turned onto the new technology out there, like TOS (ThinkorSwim). It takes an awful lot of the grunt work out that I used to stumble thru by hand. I am usually on the short side of...