Recent content by ianshep

J, You've really blinded me with science this time! Is that a chart or a game of Scrabble? :cheesy: The long term chart shows that we are trendless and rangebound. Interestingly, the downward sloping channel from your Dec03 chart is completely flat on the continuation chart i.e. while there...

J, The weekly continuation chart shows a massive double top with the pattern low at 1700, giving a downside target of 1000. However, 1700 has already been penetrated upwards once, which weakens the pattern. 1400 is now THE key level. If this goes, then there is only the base support at 1200 to...

J, I'm a seller. Although it can just about be argued from the weekly continuation chart (below) that we're in an uptrend, the trend for the whole life of the CZ03 contract has been down - lower highs and lower lows. What is going to change that now? The uptrend line coincides nicely with the...

Re: Wheat , Corn & Cocoa Toad, This is what I do (works for any charting application on a Windows machine but needs Microsoft Powerpoint): - Click 'ALT' + 'Prt Sc' buttons together (to get the screen shot of my chart into the cut buffer) - Open a blank presentation in Powerpoint - Click...

Toad, As you say, the gap seems to be the critical point in the short term. To jump the gun completely, a small rally that fails at the overhead gap would set up the right shoulder of a H+S pattern with a target of around 2980! Interesting times.

Motty, The pattern discussed above was at the CONTRACT high for December Wheat and led to a 38% retracement (of the advance) back to the 20 day moving average. FWIW, I'm back in long for the next upleg. I have no idea what the all time high for wheat is, but if you look at this monthly...

Andreas, Thank you for posting the chart. The textbook Evening Star formation had caught my eye but I was too busy/lazy to post it up! One more factor supporting a retracement from here is that the long white candle that opened the Evening Star pushed outside the top Bollinger Band (2 std...

Paul, It's all stated quite clearly in the dealing guide. The expiration date dates for each commodity and the close/rollover dates for the D4F equivalents are all there in the tables, so I can't see that they are misleading anybody. The practice of only offering the front month is pretty...

Ah, yes. I'm short in CBOT Sept which is not looking quite as perky as Dec. Nonetheless, came within a few cents of my trailing stop yesterday. The trade has to end sometime, I suppose.

Paul, I'm assuming from your comments that you're looking at daily charts. Gold has been showing nice, clean swings for some time and crude oil hasn't been too bad since the 'random' war volatility has been left behind. Away from physicals, T-bonds trend nicely and so do a number of forex...

Paul, As I'm still in short, I hope you lose your shirt :evil: (No hard feelings, mate)

Sandy, The 'coobs', as we say in Cambridgeshire, is one of the instruments I have an interest in, but I'm at the opposite end to the scalpers. I trade on EOD only. We're clearly at a major turning point for the S&P and therefore the financial world. I must say that I'm not looking forward to...

Sandy, It looks like the Nas might give the earliest indications of the next move. It's sitting right at the key level of 1160 (NDX) while the main US indices have a little room to rise yet. The once-mighty Nas is the conspicuous absentee from your (very impressive) grand tour of the indices...

Hi Sandy, In the case of the article I refer to, the analysis covers the whole of the 20th century to see if there are 'typical' yield levels that mark the major tops and bottoms. It's for that reason that the Dow is used - the data isn't available for the Johnny-come-lately S&P500.

Paul, That's an interesting observation, but there is no particular reason why a falling FTSE should stop when the yield equals the 'risk-free return', normally quoted as the yield available from long dated gilts. Many individual shares yield much more than the risk free rate. Why? Because the...