Recent content by HoleyProfit

Stop to just under the low on the filling of the first possible bear signals. Bad look for the bull move if we break again.

Adjusted stop hit. Another essentially even exit. Next fill. And I've found when I post these online people laugh at me for getting stopped out and buying again but the RR is exponential. And most losses are papercuts. It's good for PL.

We inform our area to trail stops by using pending bearish patterns. Here we have a 76 fill. The tendency here is a 76 high or a break of 76 and it holding a retest of the 76 - 50 fibs area. This doesn't happen all the time, but it's one of the norms I like to bet on. Inside of that...

So here in the high RR version we have a reaction off the support and possible structure break to the upside. At this point we can move this stop to slightly under even and get to freeroll for 12R. Any time you can freeroll for 12R, that's a good thing. Someone put that on a T-shirt.

I spoke about big RR hunting. This is a possible situation for that. Here we break it into a few sections. 1 - The 76 is a possible low. Wait and see what happens. 2 - If there's a reaction, drop to small charts and look for retracement entries. 3 - Stop goes under recent small chart low...

I said for big RR hunting we need a reason to believe the move will be strong and not choppy with big pullbacks. We can support that here because if this is the start of an up move then this drop is the big pullback. If and when this ends we should have another impulse leg to take out the...

I spoke about big RR hunting. This is a possible situation for that. Here we break it into a few sections. 1 - The 76 is a possible low. Wait and see what happens. 2 - If there's a reaction, drop to small charts and look for retracement entries. 3 - Stop goes under recent small chart low...

I've taken the time to read through most of this thread and tl;dr is: "I like fibs, this is some of the ways I make money with them". Or; "I've never used fibs, here's my rant on why you should not bother to try either". And to fair, this is a broad reflection of how things often go. Those...

I run into a lot of people who range from sceptical to outright cynical about fibs. From "I don't think it works and would need to see something big to convince me" to "It doesn't work and whatever you say your results are over 15 years I don't believe if it does not my preconception". I'm...

Something I'd like to show you with this 76 thing is how much easier it can make decisions than just watching the PA. Here's a real time example to test. This BTC chart - looks quite ugly, right? Bit knife-catchy. Either looks like a short or take no action. But when you add the fib -...

These concepts for a failed would be bull trap in SPX backtest really well. Randomly apply them to pullbacks and you'll find they have a reasonable hit rate. Here's a random pullback from the 70s.

We're using the same rules for execution here are we're using for a broad roadmap of possible moves. Here's SPX fibs from the 2022 drop. 86 hits. Pullback to 50 fib. New high. Now we have possible resis 1.27 (Failed). 1.61 (Soon to test). If these levels break - strong move up to 2.20 - 2.61...

Nasdaq pending order close to invalidated. Hitting 1.27 would fill the target move for the 86 and we need to scrap that order. If and when this happens we'll proceed with trend following strats.

I don't really care about the concepts of "Right" and "Wrong". I feel when you've done this for a long enough time you have to accept it is just a random distribution. I'll bet on my setups 1,000s of times and it's only logical I'll experience all outcomes. What I care about is not spending...

BTC stop hit. No fill yet on indices. BTC didn't quite retrace enough off the 86 to trigger the counter strat. Hitting the would be target of that now. Next 76 area filled. 1:6 RR trade taken.