Recent content by fastnet

Hi TWI - noticed your comment about the wheat spread. I'm in the July spread which is ready for a move - I wondered why you favoured the Dec spread? Grateful, as ever, for any insights . . Cheers FN

What do we make of the oil prices moves in the past 24hours. By lunchtime Tuesday I was all out of a position built over the past fortnight . . . . . . expecting a big move down after all the talk of a ''hostage premium'' being built into the price. However sailors now on their way home and...

Hi jxntn - I did look at this trade again last night. It's great that it's has now turned profitable for you but I'm not sure there are yet true signs that this trade has turned the corner. Of course it may well have done but I can't see that from the chart today. No new low has been made - what...

Okay - looked again in detail today. I have also looked out some of the charts I printed off when I initiated trades and compared them with the charts shown in ''spread trade portfolio'' on MRCI. This is where there is a collection of recent trades that have already played out. Consider the...

Okay - thanks GT - got to admit though I go to bed more confused about spreads and MRCI charts than I have in the past 6 months. I've been trawling through the ''special spread charts'' - I looked at Soyabeans, Corn, Live Cattle and wheat. Each time a trade looks good I do the ''Kato check''...

Really. . . . pretty fundamental stuff eh - and v confusing until you get used to it. Thanks for the clarification. With this in mind, and if you get a minute, I'd be interested in hearing what you think about the long July short Sept 06 Wheat trade (MGE) in MRCI's special charts. This is...

Hi GT - given that hedge funds and other financial institutions are moving into spreads wholesale do you think this will have a major impact on the reliability of historical patterns? Is this already happening to some degree? Presumably until fairly recently only commodity firms and some private...

Hi Kato - thanks for your post - it's reassuring to hear that some self-trawling for trades also bear fruit - being as picky as I am (seasonals only) there are few trades left. You raised a very important point in your email - that of actual spread levels reached in the past (never more than...

Yesterdays trades (5th Dec) - all MOC I closed out my remaining LH position (April -Feb) - B1 Feb LH @ 64.55 S1 April LH @ 67.70 close spread 3.15 I opened one live cattle spread June - August B1 M LC @ 87.45 S1 Q LC @ 86.15 open spread 1.3 I tried to open the June - December LH spread but...

It's great to have other opinions/thoughts - absolutely. So - I like the look of lean hogs buy June sell Dec (potential $10 increase [$4000] by early March). But I also like the look of April - August - (looks like there's a bottom in at the start of a potential $4 increase culminating at the...

Hi All - on Sunday night I was going to ask exactly the same question as jxntn regarding correlation. I suppose the way I decided to think about them was as an extra incentive when placing a trade but ONLY when the correlation is is the direction of the expected 5/15 year expected trend ie...

Happy New Year everyone! Kato - so I could enter this spread with one LC contract and one FC contract entered as a spread? Don't you have to balance the unit move dollar values? Does this mean that even though a unit move in FC is $500 it is 1/5th less volatile than LC so that a move in one...

Okay - last post of the year. I've been thinking about the LC-FC spread between turkey sandwiches and entertaining relatives . . . . . To have an even position in both legs I'd have to buy 9 contracts altogether: 5 x LC and 4 x FC. The total trade would cost me $15 x 9 = $141 in commission...

Phew - looks as though the hog trade could be back on track - I'm sort of regretting liquidating my position now but, then again, it was the prudent thing to do at the time. Besides, if I were to increase my exposure to hogs I'd now go for the July - Oct trade. Gave an order to liquidate my...

Right - out of one hog spread MOC last night - bought Feb LH @ 65.35 and sold April LH @ 67.45 One spread left open but this hog trade looking WEAK. . . . . . . saying that I am only used to technically evaluating single direction charts - I have been trying for weeks to get my head around...