Recent content by donpiano

Two losing trades since last update. Happy to report running at 100% flawless execution. No jumping the system or loss of discipline. This get harder the longer the losing streak lasts. Current account size: £3308 Current Betsize: £330.8

In my post above i said i have a 10R stop loss for the month. How does this fit with my bet sizing? Well it means if I hit the stop loss for the month, I will lose about 65% of my account in one month. I will be down to just 35% of what i had when i started the month. If i make a 10R profit...

Back to the Kelly position sizing concept which is the title of thread. Apparently John Kelly chained smoked his way to an early grave (aged 41, in 1965). But he did leave the world with his formula for optimal betting. His formula tells me to bet 10% of my account on each trade. This is the...

"Jumping the system" I will use this term to describe any action that causes a trader to deviate from following a trading system correctly. There are many ways a trader can 'Jump' his or her system. But the common ones i suffer from are Not taking a valid entry. Taking a loss early or taking...

Long losing streaks are common with a 40% win rate system. 5,6 and 7 losers in a row happen often. 10 losers in a row are bit more rare but should be expected. Sometimes this kind of very nasty pattern can happen: 7 losers in a row followed by 1 winner followed by another 9 losers in a row...

The system I trade is a 'go with the trend' type of system. I do not trade against the trend or momentum. My system gets on average 17 trades a month. So not every day. Also just to clarify my 2:1 win loss ratio is not fixed, it is an average. On some trades I lose less than 1R and sometimes i...

My trading approach has a 2:1 win loss ratio with a 40% win rate The Kelly formula says the optimal bet fraction for my trading system is 10% Starting account size: £3760 Starting bet size: £376