Recent content by ChartSmart

The ema on its own gives you zero useful data. How long has price stayed away from the ema on average over the last 250 000 bars of data. What was the longest excursion? How does the current excursion compare to the average and the longest excursion. At the current ROC where is the current...

Yes, great question! The answer is a bit of both. It is for this exact reason that we need to know the rate of change of the EMA when calculating probability of mean reversion

Yes, on any EMA the trade will always be back to the ema itself. So if price is above the ema the trade will be short and if price is below the ema then the trade will be long. The reality is that without the data its impossible to know which ema mean reversion is most likely to happen on. In...

An example of a trade closed yesterday on the 5 min EURCAD chart trading back to the 800ema. Price had been away from the 800 ema for a statistically relevant time and at the distance from the mean and at the rate of change of the mean the overwhelming probability was that price would return to...

Big Deal you are right....understanding the time element is key as it can take longer than you think. But with the right data time becomes your key ally instead of a dangerous foe.

Distance travelled from the average or mean is very seldom sufficient for any consistency in mean reversion trading. Strong trends will run you over if you catch them to early. That's why time is so important.

I have 3 criteria: 1) Time spent away from the average 2) Distance travelled from the average 3) Rate of change of the average. All three of these factors then need to be compared to the averages and the extremes of these factors over a certain lookback period, say 250 000 bars on a 5 min...

I have traded 3 strategies on 1 fxbook account and so don't have strict numbers for this approach apart from 2018 when i only traded this strat. I don't like sharing numbers anyway as no one believes they are real anyway and at the end of the day its irrelevant. I am simply sharing a concept...

I have built software that scans the market and alerts me when a set up has been found. Those results posted above are all real trades and none of them were permanently open. The stats are very effective and with the right risk management this approach delivers consistent results

Thanks very much....here is my track record.....

Price always returns to it's average. Always. If this is true and we can figure out when it is most likely to happen, we have a strong edge on market behavior that has always and will continue to always play out So what needs to be considered? Well a lot of traders will tell you distance...