Recent content by blackcab

His books on evolution - Selfish Gene, Blind Watchmaker, Climbing Mount Improbable etc. - were stunning (and, for me, life-changing). Whatever you think of his God Delusion phase, I strongly recommend those books as masterpieces of clarity and exposition. Steve Jones says that he hasn't...

No? Any idea why they wouldn't, or why you think they wouldn't? "Classical probability theory" says that you would expect the ratio of heads to tails from single coin tosses to converge on 1:1 over the long term (with the usual assumptions: fair coin, etc.). Equivalently, you'd assign a...

My answer is 0.875 then, the reason being that only 2 of the 16 possible outcomes do not contain any consecutive heads or tails - HTHT and THTH. 14 of the 16 (7/8 or 87.5%) do contain at least one instance of 2 consecutive heads or 2 consecutive tails and so satisfy the requirement. I don't see...

I'd like to take part in this thread more than I have, but simply haven't got time to read and digest it all so far. Really. So I'll reiterate and summarise my earlier reply: If the question is "what is the probability of throwing two consecutive heads or two consecutive tails in a single...

TWS doesn't provide tick charts. Try Sierra Chart like nine said, or Quote Tracker.

No, no, we can do this, I'm sure, if we put our heads together. Who knows, if we can solve this we may get something useful that we could all use.

everyonerich, do you consider my post #94 to be worthy of the prize? It shows how to exit the positions with a profit, conditional only on subsequent price action.

'Single positions' = trading one underlying with one account where a sell closes a long, i.e. normal trading. 'Multiple positions' = what you're doing. The P&L is the same whichever way round you do the trades, but you get more unfavourable excursion with your method, i.e. bigger price swings -...

5. You sell 1 lot at 1.3000 6. Assuming you're using a regular broker, that sell does not open a second position. It closes your existing position. 7. You have taken a loss of 0.1000 on your account and you have no open positions. Still OK?

3. The market turns down and reaches 1.3000 4. You have one open position that is showing a current loss of 0.1000 OK so far?

OK. Let's take it one step at a time. 1. You start the day with no open positions. 2. You buy 1 lot at 1.4000 Is that ok so far?

If the two trades are the same size in the same underlying in the same account then one closes the other and you have no positions, not two positions. 1. Buy at 1.4. One open position. 2. Market moves down, trade is in loss. 3. Sell at 1.3 closes the trade and realises the loss. No open...

It's equivalent to expressing a random integer 0-15 in binary (0000...1111). The no. of sequences that do not contain 00 or 11 is small: Starting with 0 you have to follow with 1, then 0 then 1: 0101 Starting with 1 you have to follow with 0, then 1 then 0: 1010 So only 2 of the 16 sequences do...

Low for all three, with which I disagree.

So what could happen? The crisis isn't due to HFs but the govt would love to give them a good kicking. In any crude categorisation for the purpose of regulation, where would private traders be placed - HFs (albeit small ones)? What would they want to do to them - massively decrease leverage...