OPEC get what they want...What next?

So we're nearly at OPEC's stated target of the $75 barrel...although their influence is debateable!

I'm seeing signs of the market running out of steam at this point and predict a possible return to ranges in the sixties, possibly on the way further down. 6800, 6600, and then the range of 6000-6300.

Your thoughts? Is anyone predicting an upside breakout in the short term? What about the correlation with the Dow?

Personally I reckon you might want to look at the Dollar correlation instead of the DOW...

So we did have a small upside push before today's substantial drop. My short position at 7190 made me a nice 150 ticks before getting stopped out on a trailing stop. That was good, what wasn't good was that I decided to stay out during the rally and wasn't paying enough attention to get in on the big drop. I will be placing a long position with a tight stop hoping for an inital rally to 6860. That being a key fib level and a previous area of strong resistance and support I'll see what happens if we get there, leaning towards shorting at that point with confirming factors. Anyone thinking of a similar trade?

Tickdoc said:

So we did have a small upside push before today's substantial drop. My short position at 7190 made me a nice 150 ticks before getting stopped out on a trailing stop. That was good, what wasn't good was that I decided to stay out during the rally and wasn't paying enough attention to get in on the big drop. I will be placing a long position with a tight stop hoping for an inital rally to 6860. That being a key fib level and a previous area of strong resistance and support I'll see what happens if we get there, leaning towards shorting at that point with confirming factors. Anyone thinking of a similar trade?

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A beautiful rally then to above my intended limit of 6860. Should have been a bumper win for me right? Well, no, today I got taught another lesson in timing. I got in long at 6710 with an 70 tick stop. Early in the day this looked good after a stall in downward movement and the rally I was waiting for looking confirmed. The market then proceeded to dump and stop me out, before setting in to the rally I was after and bruising my ego in the process. I considered a short position at 16:00 around 6800 but decided not to trade so soon after a mid-sized loss, the market dropped 100 ticks in that hour. By this time I was in no mood to try to second guess and stick with the rally idea and so didn't get in long at 6700 as a decisive long might have at the next fib level down. All in all pretty messy, but another lesson I learnt today was controlling urges of "revenge" and trying to recoup losses immediately by making rash, unprepared trades. I may have chosen a winner on one of these swings, but it wouldn't have been based on proper research and analysis, for that reason, today wasn't a total washout! How's everyone else doing?

Seeing shallow bearish RSI divergence on the hourly but staying out tomorrow as the consolidation near 6900 might see that level repeatedly tested before a decent move. Leaning towards a short though and MA100 also looking like very strong resistance on the same chart so I might be tempted to take a short at that level (6923).:clover:

A small flag at the bottom of the short-term up channel, and a down channel starting on the 11th mean I am leaning towards a short at 7960. Will keep an eye on early moves tomorrow and watch for any confirmation of this. Luckily resisted my last trade and so wasn't caught out by the rally, again, wasn't decisive enough to catch the big drop either. This level of support only resulted in a significantly lower high though so bearish for now...

Still staying out! While I'm quite pleased that my reliance on multiple confirmations is working out (keeping me out of my short position for example...), I can't help but rue focusing on this instead of possibly identifying the substantial upside move we've had!
I'm still generally bearish oil though and am looking for a rise to 7250-7285 before a drop back to 7050, calculated from the magnitude of recent moves. This week may kill the bear in me however, our last two dips have rapidly been filled and built on...