barjon
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how many years of the 30 have been profitable Jon?![]()
ps: 'cos it's the same thing - if price starts hurtling down I don't stop to ask why, just jump out of the way if I'm long
how many years of the 30 have been profitable Jon?![]()
- most of them I'm glad to say.
Obviously - that's why you are blowing 20% of micro SB accounts trying out DOW/FTSE Stat Arb strategies.
"it's really cool because you don't have to be right about direction"
You sure it's not 30 minutes?
...............Just winding you up Jon............
..............It is just laziness to say "don't learn too much, just look for this pattern". Again we come back to people not wanting to make decisions themselves but to let some pattern/indicator/flashing light do the job for them............
Well, that's a relief toastie
I don't think I said that the causes of moves are unimportant, or I didn't mean to anyway.
Would you not say, though, that the ES move you example is apparent on a chart and enough to let people make their decisions without fully understanding why it is happening? Since that scenario you paint repeats time and again so does the "pattern" on the chart?
jon
So how does someone differentiate between this situation on a chart and the situation where heavy selling met heavier buying to create the reversal. On a chart they look 'equal'(ish) but in reality they represent two very, very different situations in terms of trading opportunity.
You can't without the sort of understanding and background info that DT talks about, but you can make an assumption that it is one and jump ship quick if it turns out to be the other.
Well, I didn't say that did I?
Do you agree, or not, that the ES scenario you painted would be reflected by the price action on a chart?
jon
Jon, you pretty much describe what an edge is there in your last post, ie the pattern repeats and we know historically that it has provided a gain on x % of occassions it did so in the past over whatever sample size. Add to that proper MM and you have an edge.
This is kind of the point. That would not work, but then again nobody in their right mind would do that. Of course, I realise that people do.
OK - can you name a pattern as well as the percentage it will play out the way you expect it?
Tell you what Jon - name 1 pattern and tell me the probability of the outcome being one way or the other. Any pattern from your 30 years as a trader and give me the probability of a continuation or reversal.
In fact - why not let's throw that out there. Can anyone name a single observable pattern and tell us the probability that a continuation or reversal will occur?