Turning a new leaf from a life of failure to success.

[ledgy]

Dude,
I'd start with a basic approach, support, resistance, trend lines, movement of price.

You don't study for the Karate black belt 6 weeks in.

Get a good flavour, it is these basics that can turn into the essentials.

Just because it appears straightforward, doesn't mean it's easy so don't discount it!

 

[Prestige]

your right,

the support and resistance are very reliable

 

[Prestige]

im going to try a long on te euro/usd tomorrow

 

[elkscout]

Just to remind you of those famous words of er..well someone


From a Dick to a King
From loneliness to a weddi

etc.

Keep trying

:whistling

Your "famous words" are part of a country and western song, and it goes
"from a Jack to a King, from loneliness to a wedding ring, I played an Ace and won ...."
Ricky Van Shelton is the last one I know who recorded it. He used terms from poker to sing about finding love. I suppose it could loosely fit within this thread. :-0

 

[Prestige]

Hey guys,

It has been over a year since I posted in here and it is amazing to see what a beginner I was when I started this. Thanks to all your kind words and help I have been trading profitably for the past 10 Months.

While I have not yet made back my original losses I am confident that in the next 6 months after increasing my trading account from a few thousand to around $10,000 I should be able to eventually make some gains. I generally feel confident in my trading and now have increased discipline in trading safe lot sizes and utilizing risk management. I make money not through high risk stunts but through the average number of profitable trades and favourable risk to reward strategies.

My goal here is to firstly make back my losses within the next 12 months.

My Second goal is from my $10,000 account to provide steady returns to myself which is part of a Project to do with trading that I am currently working on in my spare time. It will hopefully lead to once my degree being finished I becoming self sufficient from trading and helping others to grow and manage their assets.

I will try and post updates and progress here as I go along. One day it will be great to look back here and see my trading journey from the beginning.

Kind Regards,

Michael Walker

 

[new_trader]

It has been over a year since I posted in here and it is amazing to see what a beginner I was when I started this. Thanks to all your kind words and help I have been trading profitably for the past 10 Months.

That is pretty good progress...going from zero to profitable in around 8 months... You’ll be a Multi-Billionaire before you’re 25. Nice one.

 

[Prestige]

That is pretty good progress...going from zero to profitable in around 8 months... You’ll be a Multi-Billionaire before you’re 25. Nice one.

Well I mean I have been doing alright for the past 8 months, I hope you are right and my streak continues

 

[Prestige]

Okay so at today's open we saw a bit of momentum but nothing for me to into yet.

Looking at the Cable the market gapped up and is continuing up as we can see 6244 should act as R for now if it bounces off then then a lower move into european open. We can see this in the first attachment.

Furthermore we can see the GBP supply zone much lower which suggests again the swing down going into the London open before it resumes in the up trend and makes new highs later this week.

I will be looking for confirmation on the 5min and 1 hour before I get in and as its a correction movement only a 30 pip TP and 17 SL will be placed, along with Monday trading sessions usually being lower volumes.

If you have any questions or want an update let me know.

Kind Regards,

Prestige

 

[Prestige]

Success

Well.. After re-reading my thread it is amazing to see where I started and how my attitude has changed. To update my $10,000 made a bit of profit but the current strategy I was using became ineffective with consolation, basically my balance reverted back to just under $10,000 and due to the scare that I could loose the lot again I pulled out and resumed with demo attempting to develop a more reliable strategy with low risk, moderate gains but with the potential to achieve long term growth.

I am very proud to say I found the right system for me and although it is early days it is working like a charm. I began Live testing on the 9th of December 2013 and it blew ahead, risking no more then 3% per trade on a $2000 account it achieved steady growth finishing December 12.38 % up. I resumed trading on January the 6th and finished on the 24th with 7.79% growth. This was from 234 trades winning 72% of them with the average win at 8.13 pips and the average loss at -14.8 pips. Total net pips were at 541 and I had the confidence to re start my investment fund. I went all out putting in $16,000 into a new account and on Monday the 27th I launched it. The biggest trading day so far in my life!

It was so intense and stressful yet exhilarating and life giving. This is how it went...

As of now I have closed out all of my trades... This was the best week of the system coming in with a 6.36% return this week alone from 311.5 pips net gained and exactly $1018.06 in closed P&L. Better yet I lowered the maximum risk to no more then 2% per trade and of the 49 trades placed I won 43 of them giving me a 87% win ratio for the week. While I realise the conditions in the market were a high contributor to my huge profit this week it couldn't have happened at a better time, my optimal target was only $500.

In the weeks to come I will continue to update this thread on the progress long term but for now I might finally begin to rake in my reward for my 3 year Forex Journey. Below are screen shots of the data from myfxbook so you know it is verified. Please note the first live account I did a bit of trading with a different ( not as good strategy that didn't work out so ignore before December the 9th as there is a bit of a loss. The trading on the second account are purely my new fund.

Kind Regards,

Prestige

 

[FX-Parity]

Assuming this:

Win rate: 72%
Take Profit ratio: (Ave. Win / Ave. Loss) = 0.49
Average risk per trade: 3%

Over the next 2,000 trades you are very likely to sustain draw-down of anywhere between 23%(most likely at least) - 67%+ (most unlikely but can be expected). Quite a large disparity there.

That is of course assuming you do not make any mistakes and act in a robotic inhuman manner. It also assumes there are no break even trades.

To put it bluntly, it is always nice to work with monte-carlo simulations for the sake of sanity when dealing with draw-down and identifying whether or not its your error in the discretionary approach, or if its a likely distribution of wins and losses.

It's part of the many reasons why retail traders fail. They do not understand what is mathematically possible with the system and therefore dump it when it starts hitting losses. Knowing how far losses are likely to run, can be a big help in controlling your emotions.

Just some very basic food for thought.