carleygarner
Well-known member
- Messages
- 466
- Likes
- 9
April 20th, 2010
See us at the LA Trader's Expo Friday, June 11 2010: http://www.moneyshow.com/caot/WorkshopDetails.asp?wkspid=C0F78BEC175A43A68A939CAB488E0235
Stocks test pre-Goldman fraud levels
A lack of follow through selling on Monday forced shorts to cover and lured in those looking to buy on dips. The result was a return to the levels seen early Friday morning prior to news of SEC charges against Goldman Sachs.
The Canadian central bank alluded to upcoming rate hikes as the economy north of the border seems to be picking up quicker than was originally expected. The currency markets reacted and so did the Treasuries somewhat (on speculation that the move will pressure the Fed). However, U.S. equities didn't take the course of action that many had expected. Some believe that credit tightening would be seen by the markets as an anchor on the recovery and would weigh on stocks, yet the bias on Wall Street was higher. In the near-term, the market seems to be putting more credence into the idea that rate hikes confirm that the recovery is real.
It is a slow news week, but big earnings week. Ironically, the same firm that took the markets down on Friday propped them up today. Goldman Sachs reported a much better than expected $5.59 in earnings per share. Most of the firms reporting, are beating the street's consensus. At the time of this writing, about 14% of firms had announced. 40% of the 15 financial firms that have reported have been an upside surprise.
In the previous newsletter, we noted
"We have strong support in the mid to high 1170's in the S&P and question whether the market will be able to make news lows (beyond this) without some type of technically driven rally."
As it turns out, 1179.75 was all that the e-mini bears had in them. The subsequent bounce has been impressive and seems to be suggesting a return to the 2010 highs (of last week).
Don't forget about our webinar with SFO Magazine on April 29th, you can sign up for free on our website (below).
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.
S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
February 19 - Our clients were advised to sell the April 1165 calls for about $7.50, fills were coming in near $7.25 and a handful at $7.50.
March 5 - Clients with ample margin and guts, were recommended to add to this position by selling the 1165 calls for $9.50.
March16 - Clients were advised to roll half of their short call position into the April 1185/1100 strangle.
March 17 - Clients were advised to roll the remaining 1165 calls into the May 1190 calls to give the market some breathing room.
March 31 - Clients were advised to buy back the short 1100 puts for $1.75 in premium
April 1 - Clients were recommended to roll any existing April 1185 calls into the May 1215 calls for a small credit (about .50). This moves the risk away from the market and lowers the delta considerably.
April 13 - Clients were recommended to sell the May 1135 puts for $8. This move lowers the overall delta of the trade while keeping the position in the May options in hopes of favorable time value erosion. It is only a Band-Aid, but will temporarily stop the bleeding.
April 15 - Clients were recommended to buy back the May 1190 calls, and in some cases the 1200 calls and sell the May 1220/1150 call spread.
Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
March 9 - Sell 1 June mini Russell @ 682 OB
Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.
NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
March 3 - Sell 1 e-mini NASDAQ at 1878 or better
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
[email protected]
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
http://www.DeCarleyTrading.com
http://www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
See us at the LA Trader's Expo Friday, June 11 2010: http://www.moneyshow.com/caot/WorkshopDetails.asp?wkspid=C0F78BEC175A43A68A939CAB488E0235
Stocks test pre-Goldman fraud levels
A lack of follow through selling on Monday forced shorts to cover and lured in those looking to buy on dips. The result was a return to the levels seen early Friday morning prior to news of SEC charges against Goldman Sachs.
The Canadian central bank alluded to upcoming rate hikes as the economy north of the border seems to be picking up quicker than was originally expected. The currency markets reacted and so did the Treasuries somewhat (on speculation that the move will pressure the Fed). However, U.S. equities didn't take the course of action that many had expected. Some believe that credit tightening would be seen by the markets as an anchor on the recovery and would weigh on stocks, yet the bias on Wall Street was higher. In the near-term, the market seems to be putting more credence into the idea that rate hikes confirm that the recovery is real.
It is a slow news week, but big earnings week. Ironically, the same firm that took the markets down on Friday propped them up today. Goldman Sachs reported a much better than expected $5.59 in earnings per share. Most of the firms reporting, are beating the street's consensus. At the time of this writing, about 14% of firms had announced. 40% of the 15 financial firms that have reported have been an upside surprise.
In the previous newsletter, we noted
"We have strong support in the mid to high 1170's in the S&P and question whether the market will be able to make news lows (beyond this) without some type of technically driven rally."
As it turns out, 1179.75 was all that the e-mini bears had in them. The subsequent bounce has been impressive and seems to be suggesting a return to the 2010 highs (of last week).
Don't forget about our webinar with SFO Magazine on April 29th, you can sign up for free on our website (below).
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.
S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
February 19 - Our clients were advised to sell the April 1165 calls for about $7.50, fills were coming in near $7.25 and a handful at $7.50.
March 5 - Clients with ample margin and guts, were recommended to add to this position by selling the 1165 calls for $9.50.
March16 - Clients were advised to roll half of their short call position into the April 1185/1100 strangle.
March 17 - Clients were advised to roll the remaining 1165 calls into the May 1190 calls to give the market some breathing room.
March 31 - Clients were advised to buy back the short 1100 puts for $1.75 in premium
April 1 - Clients were recommended to roll any existing April 1185 calls into the May 1215 calls for a small credit (about .50). This moves the risk away from the market and lowers the delta considerably.
April 13 - Clients were recommended to sell the May 1135 puts for $8. This move lowers the overall delta of the trade while keeping the position in the May options in hopes of favorable time value erosion. It is only a Band-Aid, but will temporarily stop the bleeding.
April 15 - Clients were recommended to buy back the May 1190 calls, and in some cases the 1200 calls and sell the May 1220/1150 call spread.
Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
March 9 - Sell 1 June mini Russell @ 682 OB
Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.
NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
March 3 - Sell 1 e-mini NASDAQ at 1878 or better
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
[email protected]
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
http://www.DeCarleyTrading.com
http://www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
