Promising system?

[tqtran]

I have asked for a live track record and this they sended me.
See attached.

An account that is only trading $1,400? Come on...
If they are a legit account manager, I'm sure they have a real sizable LIVE account.
Don't they trust their own system to have an account with at least $100,000USD? or even $10,000 USD...?
Anyone that only has less than 2K in a live account and wants to manage accounts = SCAM :idea:

 

[tqtran]

the entire account has been taking 15 pips profits. then yesterday shows several 600 pip losses.

Trendie : I caught that too. A system that allows 600 PIP losses can wipe an account out fast!

This is either slow spam designed to catch newbies or an amature trader with no REAL LIVE trading experience of making sustained gains. Sorry but no real management firm has a live account with only $1,400 in it.

 

[tqtran]

I have asked for a live track record and this they sended me.
See attached.

Thats nice and cute and all but people need to see statements for his LIVE account for a minimum of 1- 2 YEARS not what he can do in a couple of weeks.

 

[options]

Too easy!

 

[trendie]

Cobblers to all this. I'm up 45,000k on a morning's oil trade... and I missed the entry by half!!!

45 thousand k?

thats 45 million! :cheesy::cheesy:

 

[options]

lol!

 

[Jova]

Startingdate: 4 september 2008
Startingamount: 10.000$
Balance at this moment: 22 381$
Equity: 17 743$


Login: 810096
Read only password: neural22
Server: MIG-Demo

 

[trendie]

As I told you several times ( in post # 15,18,34 and 38) they don't sell this system.
They only offer managed accounts based on profit sharing.

cant help but be mesmerised by all the small gains being totted up.
been messing about with this idea. but it keeps falling down (for me), because you have to draw the line at some level of loss. the longer you leave it, it either comes back to profit, or gives a killer loss. easier, I feel, to just take the hit, and move on.

I wonder......
if you ran this system as is, if there was no defined trend. (effectively ranging).
but, if there was a defined trend-direction, you biased your buys/sells towards the trend direction (either taking double size, or went for 30 pips instead of 15). this would accrue more pips in the trend-direction, and thus alleviate the eventual big hits because you have skewed your buy/sells.
(it may be possible to take this bad system and extract something useful)

I think the penny may have dropped for me. The "profit sharing" must be based on closed trades, which seems nearly always to increase, and ignoring open losing trades.
under these circumstances, you could claim an increase in equity, and thus a share of the profits, even though, on balance, the actual gains are much less.

eg, so far, 12K in gains have been posted, but 4K in unrealised losses remain.
I suspect the "profit" is seen as 12K, rather than nett 8K, and comms charged on 12K.

anyway, back to the real world.

 

[Jova]

An account that is only trading $1,400? Come on...
If they are a legit account manager, I'm sure they have a real sizable LIVE account.
Don't they trust their own system to have an account with at least $100,000USD? or even $10,000 USD...?
Anyone that only has less than 2K in a live account and wants to manage accounts = SCAM :idea:

For me the point is to see if there is no difference between demo and live accounts.

It seems the profit factor is simular of both accounts.

 

[Jova]

Thats nice and cute and all but people need to see statements for his LIVE account for a minimum of 1- 2 YEARS not what he can do in a couple of weeks.

Can you show me some live statements for 1-2 years?

 

[Jova]

cant help but be mesmerised by all the small gains being totted up.
been messing about with this idea. but it keeps falling down (for me), because you have to draw the line at some level of loss. the longer you leave it, it either comes back to profit, or gives a killer loss. easier, I feel, to just take the hit, and move on.

I wonder......
if you ran this system as is, if there was no defined trend. (effectively ranging).
but, if there was a defined trend-direction, you biased your buys/sells towards the trend direction (either taking double size, or went for 30 pips instead of 15). this would accrue more pips in the trend-direction, and thus alleviate the eventual big hits because you have skewed your buy/sells.
(it may be possible to take this bad system and extract something useful)

Can you start a demo with your adjusted ideas, to see if it preformes better?

I think the penny may have dropped for me. The "profit sharing" must be based on closed trades, which seems nearly always to increase, and ignoring open losing trades.
under these circumstances, you could claim an increase in equity, and thus a share of the profits, even though, on balance, the actual gains are much less.

eg, so far, 12K in gains have been posted, but 4K in unrealised losses remain.
I suspect the "profit" is seen as 12K, rather than nett 8K, and comms charged on 12K.

anyway, back to the real world.

I asked this and you presumed it wrong.
The profit sharing is not based on closed trades.
So in this case the profitsharing would be on the 8k$ and not on the 12k$.

 

[trendie]

Can you start a demo with your adjusted ideas, to see if it preformes better?



I asked this and you presumed it wrong.
The profit sharing is not based on closed trades.
So in this case the profitsharing would be on the 8k$ and not on the 12k$.

re: demo on idea: no plans to do this. I would rather just identify the trend, and take a position, rather than taking the hedge.

re: profit sharing. ok, sound reasonable. thanks for taking time to find out.

have you uploaded latest statement yet? or plan to? curious to know how the buys at 94.60/70/80/90, and 95.00/10/20/30/40/50/60, are coping, since CHFJPY fell yesterday by another 100 pips or so without looking back, from snapshot price of 93.80.
thanks.

Are there any aspects to the rules for coping with NFP and news? since, a one-way spike would leave you almost exponentially out of pocket? although, I find that most spikes tend to revert to the pre-news, before moving off, so perhaps you're safe.
(I am a scaredy-cat, and am out for today till Monday. good luck to anyone trading this afternoon.)

 

[Jova]

Startingdate: 4 september 2008
Startingamount: 10.000$
Balance at this moment: 22 751$
Equity: 16 145$


Login: 810096
Read only password: neural22
Server: MIG-Demo

 

[a_gnome]

Startingdate: 4 september 2008
Startingamount: 10.000$
Balance at this moment: 22 751$
Equity: 16 145$


Login: 810096
Read only password: neural22
Server: MIG-Demo

I've just had a quick look at the summary sheet and IIUC it basically says:
starting capital: 10,000.00
closed out P/L: +12,755.26
open position loss: -6,609.94

So the strategy has a 29% drawdown from close-out profits and that's if you include the starting stake. Basically you've got a 50% drawdown of your profits.

The big problem with all the reporting is that it is not marked to market. In other words the daily P&L graph should include the open position value as well as the closed out equity. Their equity curve for example doesn't show the huge current loss that the strategy is holding. If you had a proper marked to market P&L then this strategy would look far less attractive.

If you want to evaluate this strategy properly then you need a daily marked to market P&L and then you need to work out the following:
a) the annual return
b) the maximum draw down compared to that return
c) the Sharpe Ratio (basically a measure of the reward vs. the volatility of the daily returns).

Others have already pointed out the type of strategy that this is: basically looking to grab 15 pips profit whilst letting the losses "take care of themselves" somehow! IMHO this is a very appealing approach to people who psychologically love the idea of making a profit but hate a loss so they tend to maximise the number of profitable trades rather than maximising the amount of net profit that is being made. In my experience these sort of strategies nearly always blow up in the end all because of not wanting to take a small loss at the beginning. If I were considering investing in this strategy then given their apparent "head in the sand" approach to losses, I would want to know more details about how losing positions are managed and at what point they get out.

Finally, if you want my personal opinion on this strategy then I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole!

 

[trendie]

update please!

the group of buys around the 94.60/95.60 I referred to on Oct 3rd, averaging around 95.00 are now pretty much toast.
The single, one way move, a black swan if you will, has dropped 400 pips (CHFJPY) today.

Apologies, but I do have a rather evil, morbid, fascination in watching systems unravel before my eyes.
if this automated system does what it is supposed to, pairs of trades have been opened, and some nibbles of 15 pips each taken, but the opposing trades are severely underwater.

any chance of an update?
(there HAS to be some catastrophic stop-loss to prevent these kinds of events for this system?)