Open thread for critique of <trade2finind>'s ongoing performance

[trade2finind]

Hi trade2finind,
You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink.
Your problem is that you haven't found a proper set up and trigger. Your 'edge' will always allude you until you do. If your set up and trigger are properly defined, it would be the common denominator on all your trades. Once you've done this, you will then be able to produce a set of trades with meaningful stat's. Most importantly, you need to know your win : loss ratio and the ratio of average win : to average loss. Unless your trades are consistent, governed by the same set ups and entry triggers, these stats's will be difficult to produce and, any that you do produce, will be of little value. Your style appears to be too loose and vague, based on your interpretation of what you think is happening - or about to happen - in the market. A very successful trader with many, many years experience may be able to do this, but it's virtually impossible for new and inexperienced traders to trade this way. Most people on T2W have tried it (me included) and, in the 7 years that I've been a member of this forum, I've not come across a single person who claims to be consistently profitable using this approach. In fact, most blow up their accounts. Of course, you just might be the one person to buck this very consistent and unfaltering trend. . .

Tim.

Thanks for your invaluable comments. I hear what you are saying, but how does one go about finding a good set up/trigger? I'm not asking ppl to give them to me, but if there are examples of how ppl did it or the path they took to get there and reach that "aha!" moment, that would also be enlightening.

 

[timsk]

Hi trade2finind,
You have two options:
1. Stare at charts until you see a recurring pattern. Once you've spotted it, you need to break it down into as much detail as possible. Context is everything in this game. When you've found what you think is a good pattern (this is your set up), go back through your charts and find 100 examples of it. Take scereenshots of each one and make notes about the context of the pattern: trending up / down, rangebound etc. If it works better in a trending market than a rangebound one, you need to define what a trending market is so that, when you're trading live, you can differentiate between the two quickly and easily in real time. Then you want to decide on a specific trigger to enter the market, typically this will be price breaching the high / low of a candle that is critical to the set up. E.g. let's say you trade inside bars in the context of a trend. So, you're looking at HSI and it's trending up - according to your definition of an uptrend. An inside bar forms - this is your set up. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that you'll enter long if the candle following the inside candle breaches the high of the candle before the inside candle. If it doesn't - no trade. The set up can occur without the trigger being hit. You then need to decide where to place your stop and where to take profits. Go back over the 100 charts and play with the variables. But there's little point doing this until you've got a good set up that you're happy with. All of this is very time consuming and unbelievably frustrating.
2. The other option is to use someone else's set up and try it. Paper trade it to see if you like it and, if needs be, adapt it to your own style. But, follow the same process outlined in step one.
Either way, there's no quick fix. If it was simply a case of opening an account and learning how to use the trading platform and then off you go and start making loadsa money, then everyone would do it. Plenty try and most give up when they realise is not easy and will require mountains of work to achieve consistent profitability.
Tim.

 

[trade2finind]

20 Oct 2009

Lack of fundamentals did me in again. 1st trade was looking bearish, so bought a [email protected] once it breached the day low...but I should have been aware of support ZONE, it isn't a support 'line'. As such, HSI bounced back and I got stopped @0.12. 2nd trade was more of a nonsensical 'angry' trade. Same put warrant [email protected] large red candle, but price didn't move in my favor even though HSI went down further; got out w/ 1 pip profit. I looked at that warrant and there seems to be less gearing somehow or MM up to tricks? and not properly reflecting HSI's moves. Anyways, I abandoned that warrant and went to a call as my 3rd trade during an uptrend, in @0.126 and stopped @0.13 near the peak.

 

[trade2finind]

Jan 18, 2011

After taking a long hiatus, I resumed trading for the 1st time in 2011. I watched the market intently for the 1st 1/2 hour as it slide down rapidly but by then it had rebounded and was purporting to make a 'V' pattern. The line then met resistance of last day's 24,294 level and started heading south again. After a few good candle indicators and internal analysis, it seemed like the right point to enter with a PUT. I judged it correctly and made a tidy 6 tick profit, but maybe I got lucky.

I'll continue to report my progress as I rack up more trades this year.

 

[trade2finind]

Jan 19, 2011

The index opened above last day and I usually let it run at least 1/2 hour to see the trends. I missed an entry point @21.38 and also the period around 22.00. After 22.20, it started going back down and I anticipated support either at 24,325 or 24,313, the latter of which proved to be true. However, I was impatient and entered w/ a CALL when I saw a mild upswing and proceeded to lose up to 5 ticks at one point. Luckily for me, my bracket order messed up or I would have been stopped (-4 stop/+8 gain), so I mentally set a stop at -7. Time was running out as I only live trade and at this juncture, due to a silly entry point, I reset my sell at +1. Luckily the index indeed bounced off the support line and I was able to escape w/ a small profit. The lesson for me is to stick w/ my plan and not be impatient. I ended up predicting the index's bounce but did not wait until the price was low enough and as a result it could have ended up very badly. I lucked out on this one.

 

[trade2finind]

Jan 25, 2011

Thought the market was heading down but in hindsight the indicators were not clear enough to show a sustained move. As soon as I bought a BEAR, the market immediately shot straight up. I stubbornly held on longer than I should have but somehow escaped with a mild profit. I need to seriously reassess my trading strategy.

 

[trade2finind]

Jan 31, 2011

I decided to (unwisely in hindsight) rush into the market w/ a BEAR just a few minutes from the opening bell after a strong downward movement on the index. Market acted irrationally (surprise) and proceeded to head towards 23,400. I decided to extend my stop loss pt and ride it out, targeting a 1 tick profit which never materialized. In hindsight, there was upward pressure on the index mostly throughout and I should have dumped it at the b/e price once I saw the upswing after 22.50; instead, I had to sell a few seconds from the lunch closing for a 4 tick loss.

 

[trade2finind]

Feb 2, 2011

Uptrend mkt but I bucked the trend again. Noticed a piercing line pattern and jumped in with a BEAR. Sideways mkt until got stopped for 4 tick loss. No business entering that trade.

 

[astoria]

Tell us a little about your risk/reward and money mangement strategies....in the meantime, punch yourself above the eyebrow EVERY time you entered a trade where you should not have been...

Examine your chart set up...why 10 minutes?...what happened to the MA?...until you get straightened out stay away from chopsticks...


astoria

 

[trade2finind]

Tell us a little about your risk/reward and money mangement strategies....in the meantime, punch yourself above the eyebrow EVERY time you entered a trade where you should not have been...

Examine your chart set up...why 10 minutes?...what happened to the MA?...until you get straightened out stay away from chopsticks...


astoria

My RR is +8/-4 but that rarely pans out. MM is alright, I only trade 6% of my account at any 1 time; I keep to my stoploss plan. I'm only into TA and not MA.

Not sure what you mean by "chopsticks".

I agree that I should clear my head 1st before proceeding.