Oil and Oil stocks

[ttabz]

Impressive recovery, but will it continue or go back to below 80???

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

Looking for a pull back to 90 but would love to buy 8950 is we see it.

Not much data on Monday except Benancke is speaking at the pit open time.

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

I've been watching LON:XEL - still not doing yet but Arg: Argos moved well on Friday.

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

I think oil is vulnerable up here, volumes are low. We have US jobs on Friday so we may hover until we get to that. I'm not trading it here unless the dow looks like it can break up.

Mike

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

Oil looks like to we could drop further and ftse / dow have sell signals so I'm using this opportunity to watch for buying signals as we head towards the next cycle in oil once we get past the December contract.

In my watchlist is LSE: XEL / COP. In the US I'm watching PTEN / VLO.

Be interested to see what other oil watchers are looking at here.

Mike

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

I'm watching VLO / PTEN in the US. Contracts on Nymex change soon and that could bring in more volume but until Greece and fiscal cliff is resolved, expect more volatility and not a time to get loaded up long. I am on the watch out for a good short to hold for 1 to 2 weeks if we can climb before looking to see if we can hold and build into the new year for a long move.

LSE: COP is worth a watch as XEL if it can get over resistance.

Mike

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

If middle east remains unstable, we could see oil creep back to the 100 but all things being equal I think we are consolidating and will drop to 80 in the next 1 to 2 weeks which will put oil stocks in the red.

If we get a resolution to the fiscal cliff fairly soon then I think oil will be the first to bounce so I'm just watching right now off key support and resistance levels.

Mike

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

my take on oil in run up to US jobs , I'm buying pb's unless we put in any short signals as day(s) unfolds 2012-12-06_0943 - MikeHamilton's library

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

4 hr #oil chart - 1.5 weeks left on the contract Ow.ly - image uploaded by @TradeTheEasyWay (TradeTheEasyWay.com)

 

[The FCT]

What do you think is happening with the Oil price, its quite close to its most recent lows, both Brent and Light ..

Do you think it is waiting for tomorrows fed announcement?

In the long term it is a difficult one to speculate as there seems to be an expansion of supply in the US, and yet middle east conflict, and money printing, seems to be keeping the price high..

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

On the basis of price action alone oil is left out in the cold while the dow and euro keep moving.

Many oil stocks are suffering also.

We need to close above these last 2 daily bars to get back into the buy zone, we've spent this week under a daily trendline here with very poor volumes.

I had 2 x oil trades today; 1 x break even and 1 x -15 (after managing the stop on these).

If we get that close higher I think it could trigger and march to 90/92 but no sign at all at this stage.
I expect more sideways action until we get fed out of the way.

Mike

 

[The FCT]

Yeah i think its a tricky one.

I expect the fed to announce they will purchase the treasuries as expected. This should surely buoy commodities and i would expect the oil price to rise. However I think a lot of this recent downward pressure on oil is to do with the fiscal cliff.

If for instance there was no deal on the cliff, then i think the markets and oil would take a dive.

I actually think that they will suspend the debt limit ceiling and have a completely open book for the future.

As a speculator I'm not sure if I should jump in now before tomorrows fed announcement, or wait for the announcement, or wait for the resolution of the fiscal cliff talks...

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

I'm long oil here at 86.25, stop under 8590. Major daily support, looking to see if US retail sales data later can lift this up to 8850+

Mike

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

oil - invents today, level I'm watching is 106

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

US back at their desks in 3 hours.
I've bought the euro session lows in oil and looking to so if I can hold for 109.

Mike

 

[Mrs M]

Hi, I'm new to this thread and wondering if anyone has any thoughts on trading oil correlations? I've been reading about this recently, and it sounds very interesting. Any advice?

 

[lucas_king]

Hi, I'm new to this thread and wondering if anyone has any thoughts on trading oil correlations? I've been reading about this recently, and it sounds very interesting. Any advice?

I’m no expert on trading oil at all but from my experience the two main factors that affect the price of oil is the strength/weakness of the USD and Supply and Demand. Obviously with events like the problem in Syria unfolding concerns are that oil delivery from surrounding countries like Iraq, Iran etc may suffer hence sending oil prices up to levels not seen for many months. The USD has an influence in all commodity prices as that is the currency they are priced in so an increase in the price of the USD would subsequently make USD denominated products more expensive, slowing demand and causing prices to fall. As with any type of trading its not quite as black and white as that but if you use those two rules as your foundations then im sure you will be heading along the right tracks. Hope that helps mate.

 

[Mrs M]

Thanks for your reply. The strategy I've been mulling over trades the correlations between Brent and WTI - seems pretty subtle, but I'm hoping is less open to other influences that trading correlations between oil and currencies.