Nothing works consistently

[Market Wizard]

BSD

Good post and you are correct.

Trading is simple.

But if that is the case, then where is the problem? Why do 90% of traders never make it?

I don’t know much about the traders that you mention, except that they are top of their profession. But I am sure they did not enter the trading arena one week and achieved great success the next week.

They too went through a learning curve of some sort. What they discovered during this period is what has allowed them to view the markets in a simplistic way. The key element here being that they understand what they are doing, it is crystal clear. They have a deeper understanding of what’s going on than the next person.

What is the Holy Grail? How do u define it? Is your definition the same as mine or the next persons? I doubt it very much. Because of this indifference, the Holy Grail does exist, but it is what works for one at the highest level.

Once a person has attained a deeper knowledge of what he is doing, only than can he identify that what he was previously doing was complicating things, it is his new awareness of the missing elements that has allowed him to make this comparison, without he is still uncertain.


I read on earlier post here about Bill Lipschultz, currently employing PHD mathematicians and scientists or something. Why would he need them if trading was simple? Because what he is doing is simple for him at that level, but to be at that high level of mathematical understanding, he has acquired the mathematical skills which for the normal person are extremely difficult.

There is no set standard for simplicity except ones depth of knowledge on a particular subject.

 

[0007]

Taleb's book was too deep for me. In the beginning the reader understands that Black Swans are around every corner. What he does not explain to me is how to figure out when they are going to take place and in what form.

Quite often we can tell that a bubble is forming and we know that it will have to end at some point. The important word here, though, is when.. When is never known.

Traders will never know when "when" is going to be the next to happen and, in trading, that is of extreme importance.

Statistics play an essential part of trading but we can only go so far with them. The Black Swan is,also, a new component of anyone's population count. When it enters, the whole plan is thrown into confusion.

Many were short on the day that the Twin Towers massacre occurred and, equally, many were long. It is ridiculous to suggest that that could have been forecasted, but I believe that we had a premonition that, somewhere in the world, a similar incident would occur. No one knew, though, the "when" or "where" and, so, we all had to work on the charts as we saw them.

I'd save your money with Taleb's book. It does not tell us anything that we did not know already. Unfortunately, I did mention it a few months ago. Now, I wish I had not.

Split

Agree with your assessment of Taleb's Black Swan book. Just finished reading it and despite all the high-fallutin' accolades on the back cover from reputable sources, I must admit I found it waffly, over the top and long winded. Maybe my braincells are just not up to it, but in essence he seems to say: black swans are around every corner, you won't know when they will affect you unless you are very clever - unfortunately he does not tell us how to do it. (as you indeed say)

I'm glad I only borrowed it, since I don't think it has helped me. It's a bit like the wise old Sages who tell you to buy low & sell high - I worked that one out ages ago but I'm still honing the methodology!

Taleb's book has just made me more convinced that simplicity and William of Occam are the key: the simpler I keep it the better I do.

 

[the blades]

The dingier the abode was the more rubbish was spouted on markets being [I]oh so complex and rocket sciency[/I][/QUOTE]

can't give you a green dot at the moment, but what a great post.

UTB

 

[Pat494]

Taleb's book has just made me more convinced that simplicity and William of Occam are the key:

Thought I had better check on said person ( might have been a regular at your local ? ) and HE IS KNOWN TO THE WORLD !! or at least Google. If any want a further explanation here it is - "entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem".
There you are then.

 

[0007]

Thought I had better check on said person ( might have been a regular at your local ? ) and HE IS KNOWN TO THE WORLD !! or at least Google. If any want a further explanation here it is - "entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem".
There you are then.

Nah! He's not from Rome; Bill Occam's a bloke in Ladbrokes who gives me insider tips.

 

[littlemog]

Taleb's book for me was more like having coffee with this guy and he goes on and on about his ideas. It was interesting nevertheless... at least it confirms a couple of valid thoughts that should be passed around:

1. Pyschology continues to play a major part of trading because ultimately, even the author and his quoted great dead couldn't escape the fact that we're all irrational for the most part.

2. Having a system in place and being disciplined pays off in the long run (as Nero was compared to John and the rest), since in the long run we revert to the mean. (the thing is we survive so we're in the long run *lol)

3. Black swans - stop loss... enough said.

 

[jiggly]

you work consistently, albeit, consistently losing money.

along with the 95% notion that consistently lose money in the markets.....

so you can continue to think that or you can identify what emotions consistently sabotage you in your trading and harness them......

 

[CRK_UK]

Breakout trading works good but only in certain markets. If you're looking for breakouts in a trend up day kind of market, making money should be quite easy. But if your trying to use those same setups during a sideway/down market, they'd probably not work out to good. If you like breakout trading, only trade in trend up days.