NFP and giddy markets

Keeping up with the Jones's.

Markets / instruments got completely out of wack as economies were awash with excess money and cheap lines of credit...the party was never going to end...1929 anyone.

Rational disappeared as almost everyone jumped on various speculation band waggons .. Housing, stocks, commodities, currency carry trades, to name but a few.

Bubbles are speculation,irrational exuberance and fear and greed and have nothing to do with finding equilibrium...the opposite in fact happens...it's all about how far and how fast will it go and who is left holding it when the sh!t hits the fan.
 
Keeping up with the Jones's.

Markets / instruments got completely out of wack as economies were awash with excess money and cheap lines of credit...the party was never going to end...1929 anyone.

Rational disappeared as almost everyone jumped on various speculation band waggons .. Housing, stocks, commodities, currency carry trades, to name but a few.

Bubbles are speculation,irrational exuberance and fear and greed and have nothing to do with finding equilibrium...the opposite in fact happens...it's all about how far and how fast will it go and who is left holding it when the sh!t hits the fan.



Regarding perfect information once again it is a proximation that facilitates economic theory of Supply and Demand and gravitation to price equilibrium when exchange takes place.

As for market research and cars or for what ever commodity - there are search costs in terms of time and effort and nominal costs. Never the less it does take place. Undeniably so imo. Few people buy on impulse and usually to fulfill a psychological need in which case that is their choice.

For any transaction to take place there has got to be a buyer and a seller. So it is futile to suggest anything but. My friend bought a house in Enfield at the height of the market for a stupid high price imo. He felt it was a good price and properties there held their value. Whether this was right or wrong after the event is immaterial.

At that point in time there were two happy people.


Also, markets are never static but always moving. So whilst prices gravitate towards equilibrium that equilibrium price is constantly shifting too.

It seems the centuries old assumptions of perfect information and price equilibrium have caused a number of people disagreement. But such is life.

Recently I too have been really disillusioned with Capitalism so don't blame anyone for questioning but on margin it is all we have to make sense of these crazy events...
 
if everyone had perfect information, and all acted rationally on that information, trading would be impossible since no one would have an edge over anyone else

In my view this is not quite right. The perceived value of an item purchased must be equal to or greater than the price paid or the buyer would not buy it. By the same token the seller must be selling at a price equal to or greater than their perceived value of the item being sold.


Paul
 
yep i agree with what your saying, i think we are talking about different things though, obviously a buyer and seller meeting means an equilibrium but i think the discussion was more about the effectiveness of markets in producing an equilibrium, this is questionable. I don't think anyone can really disagree on this topic.
If we are discussing market types in producing price such as monopoly - oligopoly or perfect competition (I'm afraid to use the word perfect) you have a point but otherwise what alternative is there to a market bringing buyers and sellers together?

So the point is maybe there are two happy people ( i think houses are tricky point esp if you apply cost benefit analysis as opposed to financial) but in a pure financial sense, people buying the top of say internet stocks or tulipmania whatever, their perceptions of true value was obscured, market was unable to produce the correct price and the prices weren't based on any fundamental basis of value. Surely this is a view T+1 after the event. Some piece of news - event or knowledge comes into the marekt changing those perceptions. With millions of transactions in any moment in time it is inevitable some people get burnt. Markets are not static but dynamic.

True value obscured? Great old Marconi and Ferranti comes to mind based on fictitious invoices.
Market was unable to produce correct price? Is this like an IT failure?
Price is seldom based on any fundamental basis of value? Product differentiation - it's all about the image and nothing to do with taste!

Each of these can be argued for or against either way.


And with cars again, imperfect information isn't to do with search costs or anything, it is the fact that the person selling it to you knows more about it than you do so often you have to rely on other ways to ascertain the reputation of the seller to know you aren't getting ripped off ie advertisments etc. Stigliz wrote about this expansively. Another example of imperfect info is the doctor, you don't have time to get a medical degree so you have to trust the doctor and you rely on professional bodies etc. Imagine the problem of imperfect information when there is something like complex financial derivatives and when any basis for pricing the item is questionable completely unlike a car. To say someone like Robert Citron carried out due diligence on the derivatives he was buying is laughable.

But ultimately, what can you do? There isn't perfect information, there can't be and equilibrium/fair price is really in the eye of the beholder.

So how does one explain any transaction, if there can not be equilibrium / fair price?

Would you say we move from one state of disequillibrium to another based on imperfect information perhaps?

This brings to my mind something called the web theorem of price adjustment - particular to farming produce. That is where there is a long time lag between todays price and what farmers plant / produce next year.

For example if the price of rice is high this year due to shortage of supply because most farmers planted onions last year, then next year they will not plant onions due to excess supply but plant rice which fetches a higher price.

However, if all farmers have the same information and they all carry out the same practice then following year price of onions will rise whilst price of rice fall as now too many farmers planted rice last year based on higher price the year before.

This variance in crop production based on previous years price effectively means produce supplied is based on price two periods away and thus never meets equilibrium.

The flaw with this thinking / theorem is that it ignores any learning effect or intelligence.

Essentially, where there is imperfect price information there is a learning process and behaviour adjustment on side of suppliers or consumers.

For example if your Doctor who you trust starts giving some imperfect diagnosis - sooner or later his reputation will exceed him.

In derivatives - you dabble based on your own risk - let the buyer beware. If you want to base your trades on your own whims (because you have no information) or others (who you believe have perfect information) sooner or later you will learn based on returns whether it is your cup of tea or not.

To cut a long story short - gravitation to equilibrium and the seeking of knowledge to form transactions between buyers and sellers is a constant process.


Sometimes I think people who are not familiar with economics simply object to the word perfect and equilibrium.

Perhaps if we subplant perfect with good information and equilibrium price with fair price people may display less reaction...
 
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I did post a reply but i decided to scuttle it after writing, i think a lot can be debated, but it is going nowhere. One certain truth of markets is that people constantly make mistakes when valuing items and more prepared to buy because something is going up than to do any research. People have short memories and do not learn. I study economics and much of it has little application in trading. The words perfect and equilibrium are used because that is the theory, people react to them because they are clearly not true, i think the layman's understanding of economics is often much underestimated, experience will teach you more than anything else.
 
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go back to your day job atilla

Very scratchy?

You really really hurt my feelings you know that don't you? I would guess that you have had a disturbed upbringing - insecure and unloved. Your relationship with your parents all well I hope...

So what's up with you pussy cat? ;)
 
nothing, just your style or writing thats all, like you cant be wrong..when all your doing is regurgitating crap from some 70's textbook. your a part time spread better.
 
In my view this is not quite right. The perceived value of an item purchased must be equal to or greater than the price paid or the buyer would not buy it. By the same token the seller must be selling at a price equal to or greater than their perceived value of the item being sold.


Paul

i dont think this is always the case, i could have some contracts that I believe are worth more more then the current price but i may have bought a lot higher and current loss/margin requirements force me to sell.
 
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