dominationFX
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Hi. Are there any websites or books that teach nebies to FX, about the maths odds and probabilities side of trading please? Is there a pioneer of this type of trading, whose work I can study?
Maths Probabilities Question...
- Thread starter dominationFX
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DominationFX,
I admire your enthusiasm to trade - but in the nicest possible way - SLOW DOWN.
You've started quite a few threads which appear to be darting around desperately trying to get answers straight away. Trading simply doesn't work like that.
Trading is a loooong journey and takes a lot of time. Everybody trades differently and people see the markets in a multitude of different ways.
There is no one answer.
Some people scalp (like myself), some use Technical Analysis, some use purely fundamentals, some trade off 5 minute charts, other off weekly charts. We are all different.
You need to find what works for YOU. The way to start this process is to read, read, read - and watch charts for hours. Months. Years.
I think Shadowninja said it perfectly in another thread - watch and watch and watch and watch. Things will start falling into place.
I started off trading a few years ago by sticking "trading" into amazon. (really) I bought a couple of books about daytrading and off I went. Over the last three years, I've read more books, internet discussions and talked to more traders than many would bother. That's what it takes.
Everyone has different opinions on books or material that you'll find. Some will say one book is the bible of trading, others will say it's useless. Decide for yourself, Pick up a few books recommended on this site by doing a simple search, get them and start reading.
So (again, in the nicest possible way), just start reading and watching. There are loads of questions that you'll have along the way, and T2W and other sites will happily help you.
But I can't stress enough, it will take you a looooong time. Much frustration, sweat and tears. But every successful trader has gone through that. You will have to too.
Good luck.
Paulie
I admire your enthusiasm to trade - but in the nicest possible way - SLOW DOWN.
You've started quite a few threads which appear to be darting around desperately trying to get answers straight away. Trading simply doesn't work like that.
Trading is a loooong journey and takes a lot of time. Everybody trades differently and people see the markets in a multitude of different ways.
There is no one answer.
Some people scalp (like myself), some use Technical Analysis, some use purely fundamentals, some trade off 5 minute charts, other off weekly charts. We are all different.
You need to find what works for YOU. The way to start this process is to read, read, read - and watch charts for hours. Months. Years.
I think Shadowninja said it perfectly in another thread - watch and watch and watch and watch. Things will start falling into place.
I started off trading a few years ago by sticking "trading" into amazon. (really) I bought a couple of books about daytrading and off I went. Over the last three years, I've read more books, internet discussions and talked to more traders than many would bother. That's what it takes.
Everyone has different opinions on books or material that you'll find. Some will say one book is the bible of trading, others will say it's useless. Decide for yourself, Pick up a few books recommended on this site by doing a simple search, get them and start reading.
So (again, in the nicest possible way), just start reading and watching. There are loads of questions that you'll have along the way, and T2W and other sites will happily help you.
But I can't stress enough, it will take you a looooong time. Much frustration, sweat and tears. But every successful trader has gone through that. You will have to too.
Good luck.
Paulie
arabianights
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you don't need proabailityf , you need statsitscs.
BIG DIFFERENCE
BIG DIFFERENCE
wackypete2
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What is the probability that you will give us all the necessary statistics?
Peter
Jaydee
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Say you have done 100 trades:
1) Count the number of winners and multiply by the average winner.
2) Count the number of losers and multiply by the average loser.
3) Subtract the loser value from the winner. This gives you your expected value.
4) Divide this by 100 (the number of trades you did) - this is your expected value per trade.
If you have a positive expectation, you made money and vica versa for neagtive.
Note, the above doesn't take into account the commisions and other trade costs.
1) Count the number of winners and multiply by the average winner.
2) Count the number of losers and multiply by the average loser.
3) Subtract the loser value from the winner. This gives you your expected value.
4) Divide this by 100 (the number of trades you did) - this is your expected value per trade.
If you have a positive expectation, you made money and vica versa for neagtive.
Note, the above doesn't take into account the commisions and other trade costs.
scose-no-doubt
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Do you mean quant trading? if so... lol. I think Wilmott is the main quant go to guy but I could be wrong.
http://www.cqf.com/ Will set you back 10 bags of sand
IMO this is not something you can have a look at in the afternoon/evenings after work with a book or two you get off of Amazon. Well unless you don't have a strong background in maths or something and even then it's gonna be difficult.
Also if you want to look at trading from deeper perspective than TA I suggest you prepare yourself for the flurry of beasts that will escape the pandoras box.
I started to scratch a bit and now I have no clear idea how to approach the markets and in terms of application of theory I'm having trouble discerning my ar5e from my elbow.
Anyways, good luck.
4xpipcounter
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You can load yourself up with all kinds of statistics, and understand those statistics, and even be able to teach a class on Forex statistics, but that still won't make you a better trader. I happen to love numbers and statistics. Having an in-depth knowledge of it has helped broaden the scope and undestanding of how the technicals work in the markets, but to really say it has helped me bag any pips, I'd have to say, "No". What has really helped me is the methodology I trade by and live and die by. It's a conviction that I have about my trading. That is developed through time and experience.
Reread and digest Paulie S's post. She said it best. (Ah, I assume, by the name, it is a "she". I didn't check the profile.)
Also, stay away from the grandiose advertising schemes that promise x amount of millions in a few short months. Again, the only to get to where you want to be in trading is time, persistent, and hard work.
Reread and digest Paulie S's post. She said it best. (Ah, I assume, by the name, it is a "she". I didn't check the profile.)
Also, stay away from the grandiose advertising schemes that promise x amount of millions in a few short months. Again, the only to get to where you want to be in trading is time, persistent, and hard work.
lbranjord
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4xpipcounter's comments are usually a little bit beyond me. Not in a bad way, I just can't always keep up. But this one makes a lot of sense.
Like always, I'm behind the curve so if I can do it, you can. probably get there faster.
I believe that learning by doing is the best way for me, but maybe not for you. Just start studying the probabilities yourself and backtesting. You'll find a lot of BS. Stuff you thought worked, doesn't, sample size isn't large enough, indicators repaint, all sorts of things. Everything that fails is another cell in your brain though so don't worry about it!
Like always, I'm behind the curve so if I can do it, you can. probably get there faster.
I believe that learning by doing is the best way for me, but maybe not for you. Just start studying the probabilities yourself and backtesting. You'll find a lot of BS. Stuff you thought worked, doesn't, sample size isn't large enough, indicators repaint, all sorts of things. Everything that fails is another cell in your brain though so don't worry about it!
4xpipcounter
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You just proved you are in front of the curb. The fact you "can do it" proves your are in the upper 10% of all people that have ever opened an account. Don't forget, 90% fail.
Domination, as far as a comparison, it all goes back to simply doing your homework without making it complicated, and you will eventually succeed.
BTW, never pay for anything. I don't want to sound like I'm peddling anything, but there is only one paid service I would endorse. You'll get more trading information on this site for free than you will on any paid class or software you could buy.
Domination, as far as a comparison, it all goes back to simply doing your homework without making it complicated, and you will eventually succeed.
BTW, never pay for anything. I don't want to sound like I'm peddling anything, but there is only one paid service I would endorse. You'll get more trading information on this site for free than you will on any paid class or software you could buy.
lbranjord
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Right, but no one said it will continue. And through my EA I proved that my 'manual method' does not work in a static context. So either I've been lucky, or...just picked'em right.
Either way, I'm giving my methods a facelift and there may be growing pains. Trying to automate fully.
Either way, I'm giving my methods a facelift and there may be growing pains. Trying to automate fully.
