Holland and Hollande Give Euro the Jitters

cashbackforex

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Angel Merkel - Does She Need a Break? Discuss.

Alarm over Europe's financial predicament is surging again. The immediate cause is the European Union's fiscal pact, but the French election, Dutch government collapse and Spain's pain - not helping, people, oh no.

Germany insisted on this fiscal pact thing to cut public borrowing sharply, and immediately, and euro-area governments hoped it would restore stability. It's doing the opposite.

The pact is proving so unpopular that it is undermining governments - and not just in the peripheral countries most obviously at risk (thanks, guys, we're coping manfully, signed Ireland).

Trade should be interesting in the period leading up to the French election. Of special interest will be the German reaction to the changing political landscape. The collapse of the Dutch Government is leaving Merkel with few allies, and Sarkozy's departure would practically leave her friendless.

Reaction of credit market should also provide clues about the mood of the market. Yesterday, for example, the yield on French 10 year bonds was 2.99% versus 1,72% in Germany, or 2.00% in the US. Should the French yields continue to move toward those in Italy and Spain, currently 5.58, and 5.73 respectively, then the euro looks headed toward a revisit to the mid 1.20's.

If you only watch one reality show this quarter, Skating on Thin Ice has it all: tension, tears, tiaras. You read it here first.

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