EURUSD technical analysis (July)

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There's still a lot of weakness in the Euro. Last week, the ECB lower their key rate to 0% -.75%, an all time low, less incentive for people to invest in the area. I read a couple articles saying investors are selling the Euro due to fear of a Euro zone breaks up. Everyone knows the German bond is one of the safest assets to put their money in, but think about this, if the Euro falls apart, no one knows how their German assets holding will end up, no one knows whether the country will go back to the Deutsche mark or continue to use the shared currency. i think that's a risky bet that institutional investors may not want to get too heavy on. Furthermore, i also notice the Danish 2 yrs note is trading around the -.2% territory, indicating some investors are willing to pay in order to keep their money safe.

2012-07-09+EUR+weekly.png


2012-07-09+EUR+daily.png


The EURUSD rate is setting up to go lower. Long position should take extra caution because this can go another penny lower or as low as $1.2 within a month.

More detailed analysis can be found at J.C @ Trevor Bain
 
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