EURUSD 3-2 RIver Theory

[DownRiverTrader]

EURUSD Daily River Theory Analysis

EURUSD 3-2
Please note the changes in both static and dynamic leves for tommorrow and update your charts accordingly. A new River level has been established. We can discuss this further in the forum area.

The key 3242 level was tested today and held. Price moved down and appears to be testing the 3193 River level today. This new River Level remains our key to the next directional move.
If we continue to move down, then I would look to add to existing longs or establish new longs at the Transition Level of 3132. Targets would be 3193, 3242 and finally 3353 where traders should exit longs. Risk for this trade can be a daily close below the Transition Level of 3132.


If we move up above River at 3193, traders can also set up longs for the same targets as above with risk below the Transiition Level.


Stay nimble if we have a strong move down through the Trasiition area as prices will likely be very volatile here. A settle below the 3065 area indicates further downside


Only a close below the Trasiition Level at 3132 would cancel my short term bullish bias.


BULLISH ABOVE TRANSITION LEVEL AT 3132

 

[DownRiverTrader]

Eurusd 3-5

EURUSD 3-5

Just like me this weekend, the market appears to have decided to "unwind" a little to say the least. The carry trade risk seems to be dominating early on. So what is our plan?


If you have been following this pair with us, you will recall that we were focusing on the 3193 River level from late last week to be our key to the next short term directional move. I have included a section of the previous post below. Here is what we were planning as of last Friday's analysis


" The key 3242 level was tested today and held. Price moved down and appears to be testing the 3193 River level today. This new River Level remains our key to the next directional move.If we continue to move down, then I would look to add to existing longs or establish new longs at the Transition Level of 3132. Targets would be 3193, 3242 and finally 3353 where traders should exit longs. Risk for this trade can be a daily close below the Transition Level of 3132."

Last week's final post also warned...


"Stay nimble if we have a strong move down through the Trasiition area as prices will likely be very volatile here. A settle below the 3065 area indicates further downside"

How have I been approaching today's emotional market?


I have been adding heavily to my existing longs on the surge through Trasition. I continue to target 3242 and then 3353. And only a significant daily close below the Transition Level at 3132 will alter my view. We will devote some time to this view in our discussion area today and if you haven't already, read the information on "Transition Levels" in the Methodology Section.


So what to do?


Focus on the 3132 Transistion area for the next session or two. A move back up to test this area will be the short term key.


Aggressive short term traders can set up shorts on a failure into the Transition Level of 3132. Downside targets would be 3069, then 3007 where I would cover and take profit. Only novice traders will chase today's move down.
A move back through the Trasition Level at 3132 would be short term bullish and I would set up longs with targets of 3242 and then 3353.
With the strong move down today, the new River Level is coming in around 3140 as of this posting. We will need to clear this level on the upside for longs to advance.


Only a close below the Trasiition Level at 3132 would cancel my short term bullish bias.


BULLISH ABOVE TRANSITION LEVEL AT 3132