Recent content by UncleNed

if a bank was to write the cds contract, could it hedge its liability by shorting the underlying issuers bonds?

I had a thought the other day, was hoping to get some appraisal/feedback on it. Could you lock in a riskless (or very low risk) position by writing a CDS contract and hedge that by shorting the underlying reference. My assumption is that if the reference faces credit downgrade/ or falls in...

i agree completely. Most people do not know when to cash in the profit. (a good example is the housing market, and people just sitting on paper profits, and expecting it to rise forever). What if more losses are announced and bank shares take another beating, and rbs is completely nationalised...

i think there is room for it to fall further. we are only just hearing of construction halting, credit tightening in the region. I think a default in the region could set off further falls, but i do see where your coming from.

after giving this some further thought, i think shorting the dubai stock exchange could serve my purpose to gain short exposure to the dubai property market. The stock exchange itself is largely dependant on the property bubble in dubai (in fact the majority of the region is!).

my sentiments exactly. I would love to go short on the dubai property market if it has another 25% to fall!

ideally i would like to short an index, because there major property companies are heavily involved with the govt, and a bail out could send my short the wrong way, even though the fundamentals are there for a short position. A bit like whats happening in the UK with banks.

Does anyone know of a trade that I can enter to go short on the dubai property market? After coming back from a recent holiday there, i think the whole place is ripe for a massive downturn. But the problem is its not covered very well by brokers, although there are a few indices that track the...

i might add my own thoughts to this one... As oil prices increase, they have a slight effect on inflation. A Bank of England report said that a $3-$4 increase in oil caused a 0.1% increase in inflation over the course of 2 years. Now this increase is quite minimal, but different economies will...

I had an online hoodless brennan account, and it wasnt fantastic, but it did the trick. Then one day I got a phonecall from one of their 'brokers' telling me he has loads of wonderful ideas when the chinese stock market was rattling the world back in feb/march. So i signed up to the free...