Recent content by tomorton

I really like your emphasis on anlayisng and understanding the structure of your winning trades. So many traders place all their emphasis on their losers, as if they feel that if only they didn't have so many losers they would be a profitable trader. This is a fallacy, the win rate of a...

Classic teaching on using indicators says use price action to identify a market which is moving strongly, and the indicator to tell you when to get in and when to get out. The underlying aspirations are to get into a movement before it's even visible on the chart and to get out before its end is...

I don't trade M15 and am not in Gold right now but it's a worthwhile TA question for all markets on all time-frames. Or should I say puzzle? Becasue I don't think that there's an ideal solution. Many traders use various parameters which they want to see before taking a break-out trade, such as...

I'm a bit sceptical. I like trading the S&P but I don't ever short it long-term, only intra-day. I do short other stuff long-term but not when it's above the 50EMA.

Strategy update - Bullish EUR/USD Smash Day set-up printed 01/05. Buy order triggered 02/05. This is a with-trend long. Exit (assuming not stopped out) will be at first profitable Close on or after 08/05. The previous bullish Smash Days on this pair were - 27/03 - Win = +100 pips 03/03 - Win...

I've only read an exlanation for this after I found the correlation so I was pleased to have confirmation of what I'd noted but it wasn't really explained. Except to say that this pair is a pure risk-on/risk-off play, and I suppose the same could be said of the S&P. Nut that's not unique to this...

Yes, not unique to Smash Day trades of course, but AUD positions correlate almost always closely with NZD, and CHF with EUR. Often there is also GBP with EUR and CAD with USD. AUD/JPY is often the pair with closest correlation with the S&P.

Tuesday Close update - Closed AUD/NZD long. Gain = +78 pips r:r = 1:1.4 Win rate = 1/1 (100%) AUD/JPY short running New Smash Day set-ups - GBP/AUD, bearish GBP/NZD, bearish NZD/CAD, bullish Great weather in England today I think.

Monday Close update - AUD/NZD long running - should be closing this tonight (barring any massive collapse in price) AUD/JPY short triggered Other JPY pairs also triggered by Smash Days Monday - CAD/JPY NZD/JPY USD/JPY EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY not triggered New Smash Day set-ups - EUR/GBP, bullish...

Friday Close update - AUD/NZD long running It's the turn of the JPY to be sold off so most JPY pairs show bearish Smash Day set-ups. As ever, setting orders to rest through a weekend of troubling geo-political events plus the volatile Asian opening can be nerve-racking. Have a nice weekend.

Wednesday Close update - AUD/NZD long running CHF pairs listed yesterday failed to print Smash Days. New bearish Smash Day set-ups printed for EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY Onwards and upwards!

Tuesday Close update - AUD/NZD long running Almost the full range of CHF pairs show bearish Smash Day set-ups - AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP, NZD, USD. If anyone had thought to expand this strategy to the US indices, the Dow, Nas and S&P would all have longs running, all showing decent profits so far...

Finally got a Smash Day entry, long AUD/NZD. Not one of my favourite pairs as margin is high and long-term volatility low, plus right now long on this is a very counter-trend position so my position size is small. Onwards and upwards!

Yes, that is a danger in depending on MA's. Ideally, the trader should have rules to cover managing winning trades - getting out of a profitable trade is the toughest decision in this game.

By the way, all the NZD set-ups printed Inside Days yesterday, which is perhaps to be expected on a Good Friday, so no orders should have been triggered anyway. Next review of charts will be Tuesday night. Happy Easter.