Recent content by mark_b_27

I love you guys. This thread just keeps on giving and giving.

Look at the data you're using for your testing. Historical data is surprising inaccurate, even for the major indices. DJI, SPX etc. I developed a couple of index trading models that looked great in back-testing, but failed in real time because the data they were based on was flawed.

This is a very good point you've raised Jon. There are obviously a variety of independently audited funds using pure FA, index funds, hedge funds using a variety of techniques, statistical arbitrage, convertible arbitrage, macro, event driven, market neutral, etc, etc. As a result, there are...

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Socrates, Yes, ants are deaf. Therefore the idea of studying ants to gain an insight into group behaviour is obviously preposterous. Thank you for taking the time to clear that up. I'm also in no doubt that Darwin would have been highly impressed by your experiments were he alive to witness...

Thank you Charlie, You're last post has helped me understand where my problem lies. It would appear that every time I log on to the internet, my ISP is somehow transporting me through the space-time continuum into a parallel universe. In this universe TA is the accepted orthodoxy, and is...

I'm afraid that not being practitioner of the dark arts, the drawing of a pretty chart is beyond me. However, if I was correct in picking that recent 'head and shoulders' pattern, doesn't that indicate that we're going into another sustained down-trend? And what do the Fibonacci numbers tell...

Just out of interest, are any of you TA's charting this thread? The way it trends, hits resistance levels, reverses, counter-trends, whip-saws, hits new highs, hits new lows. Was it just me, or did anybody else notice that recent head and shoulder pattern? Pure magic. I reckon you could fill...

Socrates, You may be disappointed to know that I was being facetious. A promising debate over behaviour theory and EMH has degenerated into 26 pages of: "TA is better than FA." "No it isn't." "Yes it is." "No it isn't." While both sides have to take some of the blame for this, at times it...

To my mind, the underlying beauty of TA is that it doesn't require the practitioner to think. React to signals, yes, but think things through, no. Quite possibly, the less thinking done the better. Remember TA is an art not a science, and too much thinking can ruin a perfectly good faith.

This is actually quite interesting. This is clearly a legally tweaked variation of a classic pyramid scheme. The legal tweak is that there is a 'product' being sold. However, the 'product' appears to be a manual on "how to get rich quick by on-selling this manual on how to get rich quick "...

Some of you seem cynical about the relevance of all of this. Can I express some of my ideas as to why the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is relevant. Apologies in advance for some of the repetition, but I think some of the ideas would benefit from going over them again. What is an...

I was actually playing devil's advocate in my earlier posts. The forum is understandably dominated by people who don't believe in EMH. I just wanted to hear some reasons why. Obviously anyone who believed in EMH would have all of their money in a cheap index tracker and wouldn’t be wasting...

Thank you Socrates for helping us better understand the relevance of the ant study. Our little ant by all accounts considers himself a highly rational little fellow. He trots along to this particular area of the experiment and declares to all the other ants that there is absolutely no food...

It can been argued that experiments in behavioural finance showing that market participants don’t always act rationally or that some participants make abnormal risk adjusted returns don’t necessarily disprove the EMH. An efficient market can hold if the actions of irrational participants net...