Recent content by j0hnsmith123

Martinghoul, thanks for your comments - I am, as is plainly obvious, far from an expert. Regarding subprime, I mean that everyone knew there were huge amounts of risky debt on the books as assets and for a good while nothing much happened.

whoops, I thought sht stg tracked base rates, not LIBOR :)

Yes, maybe it is in the price already - Mar10 sht stg says interest rates will be 1.6% which is quite a long way from the current 0.5%. Whilst a downgrade might be half expected, I suspect the impact would be greater than imagined. What really seems odd to me is that debt is the problem, so...

I think the UK has too much debt (or will have very soon) and it's ability to pay it back will be called in to question. Thus at some point the market's appetite for more debt will reduce quite drastically so buyers will be hard to find. This could create a snowball. BBC - Peston's Picks...

Thanks for your comments, food for thought. I'm thinking that one day in the not too distant future HMT is going to get a surprise at one of the gilt auctions and how I might profit from that (with a low level of risk).

The ones that the BOE MPC set. If HM Treasury has to pay more for borrowing, does this put upward pressure on rates? I know there's a relationship the other way round (rates rise means yields fall) but I what to know what happens to rates if yields rise significantly.

Thanks for your reply. So if gilt yields go up this has no bearing on interest rates?

UK HM Treasury issues new gilts every month or whatever to fulfil borrowing requirements, if investors shunned new gilts (perhaps because they thought the UK is taking on too much debt) thus raising the coupon on the next issue to attract buyers, would UK interest rates be forced up as a...

This is a great thread, please keep it up. Do you have any overall stats? eg % good/bad trades, profit/loss %, av profit %, av loss % etc etc