Recent content by fastcar

Hello aarbee, and welcome. I intended to obtain the program, but have been swamped with other projects. I understand your concern, and there is even the distinct possibility that the code will not work accept on machines with XP. However, after reading Sander's white paper, I would not hesitate...

Lamishto, This is really good news, that you should get around 40 trades per month. That will give you a lot of opportunity - a very important part of reaching your trading objective. BTW, have you thought about your objectives? For instance, how much you are willing to lose before 'pulling the...

Hi Intraday, You are right, 60% winners with an 8 to 1 win loss ratio has a profit factor of 12. But Lamishto described his system differently than you suggested in your post. He said he has a 70% win rate, and a .9 to 1 win loss ratio. This system has a profit factor of (.70x.90)/(.30x1)=...

Hi Lamishto, So you have a system with a high win rate, but an upside down payoff ratio. It's so interesting running numbers on systems like this, that the 'Orthodoxy' (trading academies 'gurus', brokers, ad nauseam) proclaim are not proper trading systems. I simulated your numbers using the...

Thanks, Lamishto - this is a great start. It would be really helpful to everyone learning about this topic to have a bit more information. Could you please give us: Your win rate and your payoff ratio? What simulation software are you using? The number of trades in each simulation? How many...

Dear lamishto, Please post here your comments and suggestions related to system statistics, and how to use Monte Carlo simulation to determine proper money management. If you are interested in system development, please PM TJZ to see if he would start a new thread about that. We want to keep...

Important Stats, Market Type, Trading Objectives. YW. Since you related how a similar system backtested poorly during a certain period, I would reduce leverage as soon as you are able. What is a win at '1:1' mean? How do you cut short 402 losses into 360 '1:1' losses? (rhetorical) I realize...

Hi TJZ, Ok, this is a great start. Also, I like that your numbers include all expenses. Many traders just don't get that stats without commissions are meaningless. So, net winnings-net losses/number of trades = expectancy. 64350-40400= 23950. Divided by 939=25.506 Congratulations. You have a...

Your win rate is x/100=429/939=45.7% You state that every winner is equal to 1.5X your loser. So your winners are always 1.5R. Your next few lines are confusing. I think I know what you are saying, but I'm not certain. It would be best if we just 'don't go there'. Instead, start over, and give...

Re: Profit factor beats payoff ratio hands down Yes, you are correct. My response is to his original question 'What is more important, payoff ratio or profit factor.' So, his 'payoff ratio' is 2.90. It is a meaningless statistic absent his win rate. My point is, if you had to pick one metric...

Profit factor beats payoff ratio hands down BTW, With respect to your original question, 'What is more important, Payoff Ratio or Profit Factor?', the problem with Payoff Ratio is that it compares the relative size of your wins to your losses with NO REGARD TO YOUR WIN RATE. What this means is...

A good way to express expectancy is in multiples of risk (R). That way not only can you compare two systems you are developing to one another, but you can compare them to other people's systems. That is because everyone risks a different amount when trading. So, if your expectancy is '100', we...

I wasn't aware of that, since I haven't looked at that spreadsheet for some time... But, someone with excel skills could fix it... fastcar

BTW, I don't think Van Tharp discusses it, but I can't imagine that he is interested in Expectancy WITHOUT brokerage. What good would that be? It's a FANTASY number, that is unobtainable, and probably has NO MEANING for most traders. This is especially true of high frequency scalping systems...

Nice work, eegozi. fastcar