In June 2010 EURUSD dropped < 1.1900 on Greek debt problems. In November 2011 we have added Portugal, Irelands, Italy, Spain and France to the group and EURUSD is > 1.3500. Put down for yourself the three main reasons for this and you might see why it is holding as well as it does.
Yesterday morning at the opening of European bond markets – I must admit – I held my breath. Was this going to be another day of hammering Italian bonds – taking the yields to levels meaning that Italian borrowing cost for all the billions to be rolled over in the weeks to come would have left a...
We lock up rogue traders who lose a billion or two for their employers. That’s fine – we should continue doing that. But what do we do with incompetent politicians who because of their selfish interests or some stupid comments cause investors to lose a hundred billion or two? They only risk not...
Losing his parliamentary majority during a routine vote on budget matters, Silvio Berlusconi looks to be leaving centre stage of Italian politics. A controversial leader for many years and one who never addressed the structural reforms needed for Italy to combat its enormous debt burden...
For those who like to play the volatility for EURUSD – yesterday was a good day. Great moves – and rather predictable turns – and repeated I can’t remember for how many times – is a pips picking activity. And we ended approximately where we started.
Will today be the same? I doubt it. 1.3750 is...
You might not think so now – watching the European events over the last 21 months – but should Europe succeed in solving debt issues to the level of market confidence – we will be talking about a EURUSD at 1.50 or so.
I don’t talk about the level after a good “risk on” week – I talk about the...
First the cornering of Panadreou – both by EU leaders requesting a swift approval of the EU agreement by Greece before cash is running out and then the defection from his referendum plan by cabinet ministers and party colleagues – leaving the market with the strong impression that the referendum...
The Greek referendum – according to Papandreou – will be held at the beginning of December and in reality will be a referendum on Greece’s Euro membership. This was the message he had last night when facing the frustration and anger among other world leaders who have tried to help the debt...
If you liked last week in terms of volatility and moves – don’t miss out on this one either. While there might be a different scenario for EURUSD this week – there is an economic calendar packed with events this week – many of them interesting for volatility “play” – and some of them strong...
Whowww – what can one say. I thought it would be a relief rally – but not to that extent in one day. Ahead of the agreement – mid morning NY time – US traders took EURUSD down just below 1.3800. 27 hours later they had taken it to almost 1.4250. 450 pips up – a change from a depressive bear to...
After a 10 hour meeting and well into this morning – after 13 summits and the third promise to deliver a “final” deal on EU debt problems – EU leaders have now persuaded bondholders to take 50% losses on Greek debt and “leveraged” EFSF to 1 trillion Euros. The exact size on the Fund as well as...
I normally stay of Friday night sessions as NT traders run like chickens. The market is thin and almost any move is to start as well as to stop. In Europe there are few of us who bothers - we rather wait until Monday when liquidity is back.
European leaders will meet this evening to try to wrap together agreement – which – they might be able to do – or they might not. Further delays cannot be excluded – as distances between the parties are substantial and fundamental. The ultimo deadline is in reality November 3-4 here in South of...
The Brussels meetings took a pause yesterday – just to meet again on Wednesday. While the markets seem to have liked what has leaked from these meetings – we have to wait until Wednesday to learn what actually is agreed upon. And after that – likely a ratification process in all 17 eurozone...