Recent content by eegozi

Wow,...I WISH I knew as much as you do oh wise one....all sarcasm intended. You act as if you know everything and that "indicators" are going to limit "the extent of my income". I haven't heard a bigger piece of HORSE**** on this site until this post. Congratulations.:clap: As for limiting...

Yes. I think it offers some insight into using ADX and DI+/-. Very easy read in 2 days or so. I do not use his system exactly as he describes but I do see that his system seems to confirm moves and does seem to catch the meat of the trend. I just do not like to see as much risk of profit as...

WOW,...man...How in the hell does that happen? Even if you enter a trade incorrectly as we all have done from time to time you should not lose 20%. Seriously, with a DOW down 2% move and FTSE down 0.5% ...how do you lose 20%? You must have bought WAAY to many shares for your account size...

I agree,...this is likely a recipe for disaster. It is so cheap that you will be tempted to buy a few thousand shares and get stuck when you want to liquidate it because it is so thinly traded. Also a 10%-50% move in a stock on a daily basis is the NORM for this. I hope you have your Pepcid...

If you are using trend following entry for long and short positions why are you arbitrarily choosing a stop based on 5 candles hi/lo? Have you backtested this as being something special and does it hold across ALL instruments?....doubtfull. Why not just use the EMA cross or falling ADX or...

Hmmm,...even though I usually agree with much of what you say I will strongly disagree here. Yes indicators are lagging and in a choppy market that is volatile it is difficult to use these indicators but not imposible. I have done quite well despite being a trend follower and use these...

I would NOT use RSI and Stoch as they are both oscillators. Pick one. Use the oscillator to enter and add to postions on the side of the MACD indicator.

Re: Important Stats, Market Type, Trading Objectives. +1...well said.:thumbsup:

I think we agree more than we disagree. You seem to think I think Expectancy is the only thing that matters. I dont. Expectancy and Profit Factor use formulas to show something that SHOULD be intuitive and obvious to a 3rd grader. If I have $25K acct and I make $1K in a month then by...

You're right I replaced wins and losses incorrectly. Should have used 429 on the left side and 510 on the right.

Sorry,...This is incorrect. Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) – (Probability of Loss * Average Loss) Therefore with these numbers: Expectancy Formula = {.457 * (64350/510)} - {.543 * (40400/429)) = (.457 * 126.18) - (.547 * 94.17) = 57.66 - 51.51 = 6.15 See here for more...

Oh,...I didnt see your last post. Must have happened while I was typing. I will try to look at your numbers to see if my calc need to be updated.

Your correct on Probability Win rate = % winners/ total trades = 429/939 = 45.7% Your Win/Lose Ratio is more commonly called a Profit Factor = 643.5/403 = 1.6 profit factor...Most people strive for 2 or better as ideal. Your Expectancy = (% win * Avg Win Profit) -(% lose * Avg Lose Profit) =...

Ok so now lets look at the SAME systems with a 1% risk of capital per trade. Again lets assume a $100,000 starting capital. Again 200 trades simulated 10,000 times. Notice that now the risk of draw down goes up even with the 90% system. However, also notice that in the 90% System the MINUMUM...

OK,...here is a MC Sim for 2 different systems. BOTH systems will have a 0.4R Expectancy and assume a starting capital of $100,000. The first system has a win rate of 10% and the second 90%. These are the ONLY differences in the systems. Both MC simulations are done and posted below. Both...