Recent content by bearwatch

No strategy can stay static over time and still be profitable, some need updating the logic even slightly. Your approach is very interesting indeed, a weighing scale. Are you currently using this methodology in your portfolio? I think this is where Bayesian approach can use the weight factor...

ZDO, What you're saying using 1 single trading system despite dynamic params changing is not optimal compared to a portfolio of strategies correct? I agree completely but eventually all strategy need change from time to time this is the reason I'm looking into this area. Thanks for the great...

Using fuzzy logic sold by all these commercial vendors do not work?

As you can see my avatar, I look like that in real life-- a slow learner so I'll have to reread a few times and look up a few words to let it sink in. :cheesy: Thanks for the explanation. What you're saying is no mechanical system will last correct? Constant revision, logic update and...

I have seen one trader made a successful system out this method and have seen his equity curve. Can't prove it but his detailed explanation made a good impression on me. Well, no harm in finding out. Socrates, how you do approach building successful mechanical systems? Do you probabilities in...

To start, I'm new to Bayes' concept so any input I may have fallacies so correct or point them out as we go along. According to the theory, we start with a belief, but we want to make concrete by calculating them into #s. Basically, the gray area instead of the black and white. This is fair...

Hi all, I've done some research about probabilities and came up with this very interesting concept, finding historical/prior outcomes/knowledge and use it to evaluate the current market action to take the appropriate move, long, short, or flat, be it an entry/exit type for a particular market...

Thanks all for great varied feedback! There were many answers I didn't expect but turned the lights on in my head. I have to say that I have doubts about my ability but always had hopes that one day it would turn around. After 2 stinking years, I've gone so far, it's so hard to think of...

Juanbyte, The problem is how do you know it's a good system? I would try one, abandon it as soon as it fails me, then onto another. I know it's down to probabilities but sometimes it might not be enough for some people, hence psychological problems. I haven't tried mechanical trading system...

I trade the e-minis only recently. Before I traded stocks, didn't have the time to spend doing scans and paging through chart after chart to see when the right moment to enter. In any case, at first I tried swing, but didn't work out too well as the gaps going against just make me too nervous...

Missed big move again Once again, missed another monster move. Oh well, tried 3 trade at the end of day, got whipsawed in a price range. Good thing I speculated with tight stop losses. POSITIVE, HIGH VOLUME NQ, 1 CONTRACT LONG, 5-MIN 1414.5 1417 1413 (STOPPED OUT) SAW PULLBACK FROM NEW HIGH...

Hi all, I'm new to the board and I would like to get an idea and measure my own experience with others. I know that it depends on each individual's personality, competence, professional background, etc but would like to get a general idea how long it takes to turn consistent profits. I've been...

Newbie Entry Hi all, New to the site, so far I like the site due to the enormous content through the threads. Anyway, I'm starting this journal for others to see as well as for myself (in a way this is therapy and check and balance for myself, thinking this would make me be honest to myself as...

Hi Jerry, I'm currently using Quotetracker with Heiken Ashi charts, excellent tool to accompany the conventional charts! Thanks for keeping up with all the tools out there in the market, more than I can ever imagine them all. Keep up the good work!

Paintface, I trade from my home in Malaga in Spain, plenty of UK residents here. The connectivity is very reliable, with Telefonica, but occasionally there are blackouts (I think it depends on specific towns on the coast). I live just west of the capital of Malaga and there are occasional gusts...