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FTSE 100 Index Pivot Days
This is a discussion on FTSE 100 Index Pivot Days within the UK Indices forums, part of the Indices category; At this point I don't trade the FTSE 100 index but I am thinking of doing so in the future. ...
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May 18, 2009, 10:44am
| #1 |
| Veteran Member  Join Date: May 2004 Location: Texas Posts: 756
 | FTSE 100 Index Pivot Days
At this point I don't trade the FTSE 100 index but I am thinking of doing so in the future. As such I decided to start this thread and log my forecasts for this market much the same way I do for the SPX. The first pivot date calculated from May 7TH and points to May 18TH, Today. The 21St also shows to be a pivot day.
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May 19, 2009, 12:49pm
| #2 |
| Legendary Member  Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,934
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interesting HW. i'll lurk about here. i'm interested in major reversals, as i sometimes buy UK equities.
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 The post above is recommended by: hwsteele |
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May 19, 2009, 2:36pm
| #3 | |
| Veteran Member Join Date: May 2004 Location: Texas Posts: 756
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May 19, 2009, 3:16pm
| #4 |
| Veteran Member  Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 602
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Very interesting ... im subscribed |
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May 19, 2009, 7:27pm
| #5 | |
| Veteran Member Join Date: May 2004 Location: Texas Posts: 756
| Quote:
 Lets hope it's all good!  The 18th did move the market up but then again that call came a little late so... The low on May 14th points to Monday, May the 25th. I do believe that is a holiday over there so look for the 26th.
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May 20, 2009, 4:38am
| #6 |
| Legendary Member Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,934
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yeah it's a bank holiday HW.
__________________ -------------------- Raise your hand if you think you understand, raise your standards if you don't - Boca Juniors 'Raise' -------------------- My Trading Journal - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trad...e-journal.html -------------------- UK Equities Thread - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/uk-s...orgasbord.html |
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May 23, 2009, 7:09am
| #7 |
| Veteran Member  Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 938
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Hi HW, What method are you using to calculate the pivots? There is a method I have read about, which is in essence the use of fibs on time. In the example I've attached (BG Group), I am using this formula: 1 x 1.618, to project pivot days in the future. You have to measure the distance in bars between 2 swing lows or 2 swing highs, then take that number and multiply it by 1.618, the result is the projected pivot day. The first example on the chart is 34 bars x 1.1618 = 55.012 bars. The formula provides the same ratio as a fib retracement tool - it is the same as measuring 0% to 38.2% and then to 100% This approach is not without it's problems, it's often a day early, or a day late for example. Sometimes it will project a pivot that never materialises. Also, it is worth bearing in mind that not all rallies will show such a consist structure as the example I have given, some rallies exhibit a lot of sideways movement which could be a problem. If you wanted to trade the pivots, you would need to devise a sensible method of confirmation. Also, filtering measured swings with a minimum amount of points is advisable. A sound knowledge and application of Elliot Wave Theory may help as well. I am fascinated by this, but I don't trade it, I just don't have enough experience in PA to make it work. I advise newbies like myself to proceed with caution. This will seem like a Grail hunt to some, and that this method is Esoteria at best. I accept there's potential for it to be a poisioned chalice, if you're not cautious enough, or experienced enough in PA and TA. On the other hand, if as traders we are willing to accept fib retracements are a useful measure of market price action development, then why not fibs on time? Anyway, just putting this method out there for fun right now. Looking forward to hearing about your methods HW - and apologies if this is actually your method - I certainly don't want to hijack your thread! |
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May 23, 2009, 11:46am
| #8 |
| Legendary Member Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,934
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nice analysis, as per geo! what's your success rate with it? by that i mean the ratio of clearly defined pivots to non pivots.
__________________ -------------------- Raise your hand if you think you understand, raise your standards if you don't - Boca Juniors 'Raise' -------------------- My Trading Journal - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trad...e-journal.html -------------------- UK Equities Thread - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/uk-s...orgasbord.html |
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