swingin' the ftse: 2009

Happy New Year ftse swingers

Even though the monthly and weekly are still in downtrend we start the year looking fairly positive on the daily chart with the swing uptrend receiving further confirmation as 4430 went, albeit in the suspect end-of-year period.

Bold Billy has been long from 3950 and will have closed half his position at the 4430 resistance with stop on the remainder around 4190. He will re-instate the closed half on a pullback after a close beyond 4430 if it comes.

Sound Sam is happy to accept the swing uptrend and is waiting for a three + bar retracement for a long entry.

Cautious Clarence is still not convinced about the trend change and wants to see 4640 go before he's happy. He will take a three + bar retracement after that.

good trading

jon

nb: change to the charts, I'm using pro-realtime now so they look a bit different to sharescope since they don't always recognise gap openings.

Happy new year Barjon, and everyone!

Thanks for starting this thread, and for another excellent post to kick it off. Love the analysis with the three approaches - cautious to aggressive traders.

I think this will be a very interesting year for us.... Good luck all.

Good start to the year today, albeit on slim volume.

IMO the technicals indicate a rally for the early part of 2009, but the fundamentals will bring us back down at some point, possibly to test those lows again.

Should be an interesting year whatever happens!

Well done Jon for starting a new thread. Your three-way split on the TA of the chart clearly shows how a seemingly simplistic strategy is capable of legitimate variations. Looking forward to another interesting ride this year.

I guess I fall into the 'Sound Sam' camp as I will take a 3 day drop to a new swing low as a buy signal, as long as above 3734.

Meantime, however, I am already short in short-term and hope for a further chance to short as we trade down into these silly gaps that developed this week - was there ever a rally built on shakier ground? The fundamentals remain bad as PokerBrat points out, and the US indices are not buoyant, recoiling off their 50EMAs. I expect a very severe drop after the weekend.

Hi tom
I too am holding a short position a jan 4200 put, just a single contract for now see how it goes next week

steve

Damnit! The FTSE just kept going up on Friday and stopped me out. First loss of 2009.

However, I have plenty of ammunition to make some more so am looking for the following opportunities tomorrow -

80-20 daytrade, Short - if we trade above Friday's High and collapse through it
Whiplash - at the Close, if we have a gap Open and fill the gap
Shuttle 14, Long - at the Close, if we close down on Friday's Close but still above 14MA
Key Reversal - at the Close, if we have an outside day and close outside Friday's range
3-day unfilled gap reversal, Short - if we fall through Wednesday's Low into the gap
Rivalland Swing, Short - at the Close, if Friday's High holds but we fall through Friday's Low

Also looking for intra-day opportunities fading opening gap or early session reversal.

I expect a severe drop in all markets this week, but if they continue upwards tomorrow it would be silly to continue to fight them.

There is a problem for Rivalland Swings and other strategies that use the opposite extreme of the previous session's range as a stop - Fridays' range makes this a bit steep, at 130pts. The trend is your friend, but money management is your mate.

barjon said:

.....Bold Billy has been long from 3950 and will have closed half his position at the 4430 resistance with stop on the remainder around 4190. He will re-instate the closed half on a pullback after a close beyond 4430 if it comes........

Click to expand...

Well, BB has his close above 4430 and will be looking for a pullback to re-instate his closed half. If he gets it then he'll probably lift his stop on the whole lot to behind the pullback low but much will depend on the price action. DOW went higher after FTSE close on Friday, so I guess there'll be a higher opening tomorrow.

Tomo - I should think Rivalland has the trend as up so he won't be taking shorts?

good trading

jon

Hi Jon -

I'm not seeing a clear trend using Rivalland signals, though a breach of 4639.5 would convince me of an uptrend: I'm taking all the Rivalland swing signals at present anyway in the meantime (from my own charts, not his website). But I don't think we'll succeed in taking up residence above 4639.5 and suspect a move towards 3734.1 is the more likely next serious move.

Well, as it turned out I went long early for a reversal so cancelled the opportunities for the 80-20 and Whiplash shorts: I don't really want to have opposing positions on the same index. Sat out the Shuttle 14 so as not to be over-extended long. We didn't make a swing high of Friday and it didn't develop into an outside day, so these shorts never triggered. We still have an unfilled gap from 4416 down but its now a long long way away and only has tomorrow before its time limit expires.

Frustrating being not right and not wrong at the same time.

Today's pattern makes another putative swing high, but perhaps more significantly is also a nearly perfect doji in an uptrend. Could be a big down day Tuesday. I'm getting out tonight.

I was hoping for a bit of a sell off today so that I could look to get in long on a pullback, but nothing doing so far.

Nice drop today made Tuesday swing high - took the short but closed it this evening, as the breach of 4639.5 yesterday has moved my chart into uptrend mode. Waiting for further pullback next few days to go long.

Yeah, me too. I would like to see it pullback and find support around 4400 over the next day or two.

barjon said:

Well, BB has his close above 4430 and will be looking for a pullback to re-instate his closed half. If he gets it then he'll probably lift his stop on the whole lot to behind the pullback low but much will depend on the price action. DOW went higher after FTSE close on Friday, so I guess there'll be a higher opening tomorrow.

Tomo - I should think Rivalland has the trend as up so he won't be taking shorts?

good trading

jon

Click to expand...

Well, Bold Billy has his pullback and will be looking to re-instate his closed half tomorrow. He would like to see a down opening (quite likely since DOW gave up some after FTSE close) and then a recovery when he will enter when (if) it goes above today's close. If he gets it then the stop on whole position will go to around 4410.

good trading

jon

congrats jon for 2009 thread. I have read your 2008 thread and will keep track of this one also.
thanks.

morning everyone
does anyone know whats happening to the markets at the mo
traditionally on a more or less guaranteed interest rate cut day
£ should reduce and ftse should rise
am i missing something or is the other bad news around affecting this
what do you guys think

sisroe said:

morning everyone
£ should reduce and ftse should rise

Click to expand...

I can guarantee that if that is what the popular consensus is - then the market will probably do the opposite - for no reason - just technical trading.

I have a short open on the FTSE which I am just about to close. I don't want to be in the market at 12pm.

Hoggums said:

I can guarantee that if that is what the popular consensus is - then the market will probably do the opposite - for no reason - just technical trading.

I have a short open on the FTSE which I am just about to close. I don't want to be in the market at 12pm.

Click to expand...

i am also short on ftse
oh what to do?

FTSE has found some support around 4444 with a double bottom on the intra-day. This level is historic from 31st Dec where 4450 acted as resistance on the base.

I did a stop and reverse from my short of this morning when it bounced from this level the second time and failed to make a lower low. So I am currently long from 4448, with a stop moved up to 4457 below the first swing low and 23.6% fib to lock in a few points.

At the moment it seems to be basing between 4460 and 4470, probably waiting for the news. If you are short, you should be tightening your stop to avoid giving it all back if the market reacts positively.

Happy new year

nice to see thread still going John

happy new year



Ftse hit 50 % retrace on this Crimbo rally today (market hours) and possible iniciated Buy @ 4400, bit dubious because of Crimbo volume but price escaped and volume/breadth on re-test will be interesting

price volume & mp ..... my interpretation

volume was good open hour yesterday ~ sold straight off open which was a tad under news wide bars (15 min) from the day before pd POC

low and flat in range then picked up to the downside into the close

day traders close rally last half hour

volume flat today and no interest (supply) at under pdl 4400 pmh etc etc lack lusta

volume picked up to the upside lower than decline but accompanied with large close volume at official time

I have mp POC @ 60 day 4250 fut 20 day 4325 value block 200-400


I will go for ............. Early Bull attempt to get involved in continuation move forced to close out and provide cheap down fuel

1st re-test hours @ 526 -529 fut for an attempt at short depending on certain things and emotions

Friday or worse trapped offside into / over the weekend

Ftse to test lower, perhaps not that convincing can see back and fill for months in slight uptrend while price wanders across the months Bear channel

All the above is complete BS but posting is more fun than watching Big Brother (the Mrs and Son have Hi-jacked the lounge)

News & Friday = mind how you go all and good :clover:



Latter

Andy


nb: volume on both days ftse actual low & breadth split today


~ agree Tom

Friday & Payrolls makes it hard intra day =

all plans are subject to change at very short notice

Andy - I also favour early rally Friday morning. Nice hammer candlestick today after significant fall Wednesday. I am already long overnight (have moved stop as far as possible from current price in case of SB spikes). After early rally, probably continuation of correction downwards but I will wait and see before entering that play short.