Grey Box. Has anyone tried to build one?

maxima

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Just read about automated systems Waters magazine - Trading Wizards.

Obviously that if clearance company implements this - they can succeed even along with 'real banks.

But is there any chance to succeed for private trader with his own grey box? Anyone tried?
 
well it was stupid of me to ask such kind of question on Friday! My fault :)
 
Of course, do not suppose that the strategies that these clearing companies back are superior to anything that anybody else of moderate intelligence can come up with.
 
Of course, do not suppose that the strategies that these clearing companies back are superior to anything that anybody else of moderate intelligence can come up with.
I understood from the topic that main point of automated trading is human-less placing of orders. Therefore speed of trading far more superior to any living human can achieve. 10 folds.

Also it can be copied over and traded on 2 markets and go on.. It can trade 24 hours a day on international markets. etc...

But I am not trying to promote it or anything. I am just learning and asking questions. If I was working as a quant for some proper bank I would consider creating my own grey box seriously. But I have no brain enough.


My question was purely theoretical - how big chance of success of a gray box for private trader after institutions and clearing houses alread clipped their chunk.
 
I have developed a 'gray box' for myself using excel and RTD. I have been running it for the past 2 years (apprx). At the moment it just highlights trade opportunities for me then it's upto me to actually stop reading the paper and execute. I've been looking to fully automate through TT for a while, but markets have been so busy since August it's been on the back burner until things become slightly quieter - and I can figure out a way to mange the risk properly. The beauty of a system not actually executing is that you can manage the risk appropriately and this is key for the individual trader, but on the other hand I miss some extremely good opportunities due to lack of execution speed.

I am no programming expert and my system uses mainly basic excel formulae and math with a bit of VBA thrown in for good measure. The reason i'm going on about this is that my system is and has been profitable for the last 2 years so there is still room for the individual trader to come up with a system and the opportunities not be snapped up by the banks within milliseconds. If you have a strategy that you think can be exploited then it's worth a go..
 
thank you for sharing! :)

but is your strategy scalping strategy? I was asking mainly about scalping...
 
Just read about automated systems Waters magazine - Trading Wizards.

Obviously that if clearance company implements this - they can succeed even along with 'real banks.

But is there any chance to succeed for private trader with his own grey box? Anyone tried?


As far as I know a black box is one you do not know the internals of. A white box is one you know the internals of. This has nothing to do with trader intervention as someone mentions in the article, This is confusing, I wonder if anyone else noticed. What is a grey box? Something that you know a little about how it works? IMO you either know or you do not.

Alex
 
Hi Maxima,

Strategy is purely for scalping. In my experience there are many scalping opportunities out there but you will need to do some serious logical coding if you wanted to purely automate a scalping strategy as there are so many variables (Hence why I haven't had time to fully automate as yet). But there are still opportunities out there that don't get annihalated in 3 milliseconds, in fact I have seen some opportunities stay for minutes before finally being 'taken out' although the longer the opportunity exists the less probable of a profitable trade (maybe thats just my imagination, but certainly appears to be the way it works!)

Alexander,

I think that somethimes trader intervention can give you the edge in automated trading. I heard rumours a few months ago that one outfit had recognised anothers algo that if a spread bid or offer exceeded a certain lot size it's algo would join the same bid/offer and get some of the cake. From what I remember, outfit 'a' needed to sell a red Euribor 3 month spread that was a tick wide. They knew that someone elses algo would match their volume if they entered a 20,000 lot bid order. They entered the 20,000 lot bid out of general market hours (about 3am or something). The algo then joined the same bid with another 20,000 lots making a total of a new 40,000 lot bid. outfit 'a' then proceeded to pull their bid while simultaniously selling the remaining 20,000 bid sent in by the algo, leaving them with a massive position and no cover. Now i'm not saying that this is gospel, it is just what I heard. I do definately know that I remember the morning as when I walked in the office at 6:30 the spread had already shown a massive culmulative volume which is obviously surprising at that time of morning.

Anyway to stop my rambling, I am just trying to make a point of when sometimes trader intervention can give some edge.
 
Strategy is purely for scalping.
Is it some broker's price feed do you use (is it Level2 data?) or is it from 3-d party (so you are getting signals from your 'grey box' and trade separately on some broker platform)?
 
Maxima,

I am what is known as a 'local' at an arcade, so I do not use a broker. I have dma and trade futures. The front end that I use provides an Excel RTD function that allows me to request prices and data from the database that can then be manipulated in excel to do whatever you want. I actually have to pay for this software twice as I use one for trading and one for Excel as the spreadsheet can be quite demanding and could cause a slow down on my trading pc. You will tend to get more signals in a busy market, and this is when you need your trading pc to be as efficient as possible.

I beleive that alot of dma brokers do offer level 2 via their api so it is definately possible to get the data.
 
...I use one for trading and one for Excel as the spreadsheet can be quite demanding and could cause a slow down on my trading pc. You will tend to get more signals in a busy market, and this is when you need your trading pc to be as efficient as possible...
How about you do a little programm which split data on 1st machine into 2 streams. One is going as usual for your trading programm and another one is pushed to the satellite machine to feed your gray box. In this case you dont need to pay for 2 feeds and impact onto 1st machine is next to nothing. (I assume that you can connect your own machine (laptop) to the arcade machine/network)....
 
Maxima,

At the moment my programming skills aren't up to scratch to split the data into 2 streams, but to be honest my trading PC has only got trading app on it and nothing else, it is only connected to trading network down dedicated line so there is no internet or other programmes to affect performance.

Also like I say spreadsheets can cause quite a big effect on the cpu performance so for me personally it's just not worth the risk of any kind of slowdown.

Thanks for your advice though and I'm sure when my programming knowledge inceases I will have a look at other possibilities (I'm currently studying c#, hoping to cut out excel altogether and increase performance).
 
Sorry have just re-read your post and see what your saying about splitting feed onto satellite machine.

I'm not upto that programming level yet, but great idea, I will look into it further.
 
How about you do a little programm which split data on 1st machine into 2 streams. One is going as usual for your trading programm and another one is pushed to the satellite machine to feed your gray box.....

Do you have any programming knowledge maxima or is that simply a concept?
 
I understood from the topic that main point of automated trading is human-less placing of orders. Therefore speed of trading far more superior to any living human can achieve. 10 folds.

Also it can be copied over and traded on 2 markets and go on.. It can trade 24 hours a day on international markets. etc...

But I am not trying to promote it or anything. I am just learning and asking questions. If I was working as a quant for some proper bank I would consider creating my own grey box seriously. But I have no brain enough.


My question was purely theoretical - how big chance of success of a gray box for private trader after institutions and clearing houses alread clipped their chunk.

I have developed a 'gray box' for myself using excel and RTD. I have been running it for the past 2 years (apprx). At the moment it just highlights trade opportunities for me then it's upto me to actually stop reading the paper and execute. I've been looking to fully automate through TT for a while, but markets have been so busy since August it's been on the back burner until things become slightly quieter - and I can figure out a way to mange the risk properly. The beauty of a system not actually executing is that you can manage the risk appropriately and this is key for the individual trader, but on the other hand I miss some extremely good opportunities due to lack of execution speed.

I am no programming expert and my system uses mainly basic excel formulae and math with a bit of VBA thrown in for good measure. The reason i'm going on about this is that my system is and has been profitable for the last 2 years so there is still room for the individual trader to come up with a system and the opportunities not be snapped up by the banks within milliseconds. If you have a strategy that you think can be exploited then it's worth a go..

I did a google search on black box vs grey box and arrived here. Surprised there aren't newer topics on the subject, but the concept is straight-forward enough. To answer the OPs question, yes, an automated system can be created and used in a retail environment. The system does not thrive on complexity, but on fundamental soundness. In other words, it must have the core components of what makes a complete trading system for manual trading. The added benefit, as Lucky pointed out is that you can capture certain moves that are much more difficult to trade manually.
 
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