A hedging solution for timed trades.

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Old Oct 21, 2017, 1:17pm   #1
 
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A hedging solution for timed trades.

So in the UK there is a broker called IG who offer timed trades.
For example OIL will be below xx by 19:30. You can buy the statement or sell it, if you're correct you get the amount you bet x the odds. Their odds are always worse on the losing side.
Here's an example

Click the image to open in full size.


Here you will see you if I sell I am saying oil will not reach 53 by 19:30 and if I bet $1 per point I will receive $10.4 back, if it does go above 53 by 19:30 then I lose $80.60. More often than not I can successfully predict it and since the lower odds they offer the more likely it is to happen I can get some big winning streaks, however once I have 1 loss the loss it usually wipes out the 10 successful trades in a row I won.

I'm trying to a way to hedge so the loss is minimal if the price is looking like its going to go above x. I haven't found a solution yet. Could anyone share your ideas on how I could tackle this? Heck I'll even throw a bit of bitcoin or paypal to anyone who can think up a good solution.

Cheers.
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Old Oct 24, 2017, 3:57pm   #2
 
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Joined Jul 2017
Quote:
Originally Posted by dpk123 View Post
So in the UK there is a broker called IG who offer timed trades.
For example OIL will be below xx by 19:30. You can buy the statement or sell it, if you're correct you get the amount you bet x the odds. Their odds are always worse on the losing side.
Here's an example

Click the image to open in full size.


Here you will see you if I sell I am saying oil will not reach 53 by 19:30 and if I bet $1 per point I will receive $10.4 back, if it does go above 53 by 19:30 then I lose $80.60. More often than not I can successfully predict it and since the lower odds they offer the more likely it is to happen I can get some big winning streaks, however once I have 1 loss the loss it usually wipes out the 10 successful trades in a row I won.

I'm trying to a way to hedge so the loss is minimal if the price is looking like its going to go above x. I haven't found a solution yet. Could anyone share your ideas on how I could tackle this? Heck I'll even throw a bit of bitcoin or paypal to anyone who can think up a good solution.

Cheers.
My solution is to stop doing this sort of "trading", clearly this is not trading, but some sort of betting and they are not stupid and have calculated the odds in their favor... same with the binary options... if you have a system and can "predict" the movement resonantly well, focus on risk management and start testing real trading as opposite to this sort of gambling...
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Old Oct 24, 2017, 4:27pm   #3
Joined Apr 2016
Hedge with bitcoin, since you have plenty of it to throw around. If you lose at IG, just go make it back from bitcoin.
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Old Oct 24, 2017, 9:15pm   #4
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Joined Oct 2017
Commodities are generally inversely correlated with the $ so if you betting oil goes up to hedge that you would sell $
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Old Oct 24, 2017, 10:06pm   #5
 
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Joined Oct 2015
Quote:
Originally Posted by dpk123 View Post
..I'm trying to a way to hedge so the loss is minimal
hedge with long oil as soon as you know the market is going up
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