ketank said:
if you look at a 10year or more quarterly chart with stochastics as an indicator, do you think from this or next quarter onwards the market is heading for big drop?
try it with dow/ftse and indiviual stocks, nearly everything has peaked
i find most stocks and dj&ftse are heading that way, anyone agree - worryied?
hmm look at a dow chart starting 1934-40 to the present draw a trend line between the 2 points, massive one way up so far with ceiling in place suggesting possible top out, guess (ie I havent looked or charted it in detail ) then one can see its due? for a pull back to that 70 year trend line.... over the next 5 years or so if i was wanting to invest for 20 years plus in stocks then I'd wait for a new high in the dow and be
very attentive when prices approach that
70 year trendline. but i sense, going off gut that the next five years will be stagnant or the start of a major bear market ala nikkei 225.
My personal view is that global terror threats (from this point on in time will only get worse, major anthrax release in a western city etc.... i see that as not if but when... within 10 years guess) how will the markets react ? and will they, are they going to put that threat into the market prices now(0-5 years) ? makes sense. stocks trading at PE forward 18/20's way too expensive 5 / 8 x forward perhaps will become the norm . Dow 4000.. still might be top heavy.....
Short side tracker fund is the way i feel perhaps is the best for stocks. if one has to invest looking out 20 years
good for gold id expect, depends on the damge /success of terrorists crippling an economy.
lets hope terror doesnt managed to get hold, but some say you should live life without hope.
In short I see the terror threat upside too great to hold stocks for capital growth medium to long term.
jd.. just opinion..
