EDS Problem (ARK)

This is a discussion on EDS Problem (ARK) within the Trading Software forums, part of the Commercial category; Hi Doc! Could not agree more with your point-the market is continually changing its character and any predictive system must ...

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Old Dec 10, 2000, 10:38am   #16
Joined Nov 2000
Hi Doc!
Could not agree more with your point-the market is continually changing its character and any predictive system must change in line.What was a good indicator in a bull market may be bad in a bear market or may not be suited to a trading range market so the parameters set for "trigger" points should also change as the market changes.
Various neural network software packages attempt to do this in a sophisticated manner and systems like OT continually optimise the parameters for any indicator by backtesting over a specified period which moves forward with the market.These more dynamic systems in my opinion offer greater chances of success.
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Old Dec 10, 2000, 10:43am   #17
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traderx started this thread Hello Doc

I am overwhelmed that you should once again help us out with this basic problem. As always you know immediately the solution. I underline the comments of John. It is great to see you posting again. I rather hoped you might be keeping an eye on things but I never thought you would post at this time. I am sure you have made many members happy this Sunday morning to know you are still around. I hope you are well. Turning to the issue, I now understand the rationale behind this thinking and amazingly, I have not previously applied the methodology of 'right indicator' and 'right level' for the indicator to my trading. Brilliant! By the way the fuzzy EDS model is proving to be very effective, given that market conditions have been adverse. If anybody had traded those shares with the highest fuzzy factor, then they have made a profit. I am keeping an eye on progress of fuzzy model by keeping records and when favourable conditions return I will trade for real on the basis of the model. Look after yourself and hope to hear from you soon.

Kindest regards

Mick (Tx)

[This message has been edited by traderx (edited 10-12-2000).]
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Old Dec 10, 2000, 11:42am   #18
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traderx started this thread I have been looking at Boots (BOOT) over the past 12 months. The method is 100% correct when applied to this stock. THIS IS POWERFULL STUFF. The indicator that works with Boots is Stochastic. Every single time the reading was between 3 and 5 the stock took off, putting on huge short term gains. The significant thing about Boots being that it has not, in itself, been a good performer this year until last couple of months when it saw an upturn. Nevertheless, the stochastic seems to be totally reliable. I used to trade Boots almost exclusively and make money from swings in price over 8 days (T+10) the good old days when I used java charts on UK Invest, mainly looked at stochastic when red line went steep north over green from low position. The amazing thing is, I never did know why I was so successful until today. I stopped trading it when retails stocks fell from grace. It was no accident that I managed to extract capital from Boots company. Only now am I beginning to realise that very little happens by chance in this market, hence the dictum, the chart knows the news is coming. Incidently, Boots is presently retracing from an upward trend, stochastic 39 suggests it will come off a lot more towards lower BB before the bounce when the stochastic reaches a figure of <5. I could be wrong but lets watch it and see.

Tx

Tx
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Old Dec 10, 2000, 12:01pm   #19
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Glad to see you're alive and kicking, Doc.
Steve
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Old Dec 10, 2000, 3:24pm   #20
Joe
Joined Nov 2000
Hi Doc,
Beware of neurostock which is similar to neuroshell. They don't respond. I am still awaiting a permanent licence depite a number of requests and my version no longer works.

I'm not sure whether they are genuine but incompetant or what.

Be very careful.

Regards
Joe

[This message has been edited by Joe (edited 10-12-2000).]
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Old Dec 10, 2000, 3:28pm   #21
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Pleased to hear of your experience Joe for I was impressed enough with the website to give serious consideration to it.

John
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Old Dec 10, 2000, 5:06pm   #22
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I spent hours and hours working with Neurostock. I can't say I was over successful. It doesn't choose a stock for you, it basically monitors it for you.

So I came to the conclusion that instead of me monitoring NS monitoring the share... I may as well monitor the share directly myself.

But there are people that like it and are successful with it. There are some sites where people discuss settings etc, they get very complicated and I can't help thinking something is wrong if you have to find wierd and wonderful parameters for it to work.

rgds
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Old Dec 10, 2000, 5:23pm   #23
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Not sure whether to start here, or a new thread.....
I am starting to look into some software. What I need is something that is clear and simple to use ie. not too complex. It should be chart based, and I would like it to point out to me shares with eg high volume, MACD crossover, MA crossover, rising RSI etc, and from this short list allow me to study a handful of shares in depth. It should be easy and flexible to configure to my settings
Does a program exist to do this? Or are the mostly to allow you to monitor it monitoring your shares? You advise is appreciated - like Uncle said, Neurostock looks interesting in theory, but then as Cigar says, may not be what I am looking for!!
cheers, Mark


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Old Dec 10, 2000, 6:37pm   #24
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Metastock should be the answer to your quest.
There is an explorer from which you can explore the whole market or particular sectors or indices or a particluar group of shares to suit your trading style. You can download end of day from Citifeed from 6 30 pm

Obtain a demo disc from
Q-data Tel 01594 810077 Fax 810851
ruth@q-data.co.uk

But check out others before deciding.

Best wishes

John
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Old Dec 10, 2000, 7:10pm   #25
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I think one thing Neurostock does is open your eyes to what profits can be made with by timing buys/sells.
You have to 'train' NS for a 2 yr period when NS tries to best fit the price, and puts in its theoretical buys and sells. It starts the 2 yr period with $1000 and calculates the final figure... and it is amazing. An FT100 can easily return 30x in the 2 yrs. ARM was giving 300x. Average holds were ~ 8-10 days.
It shows what can be earnt from this game by getting those buys and sells timed right, rather than looking for the golden share that will double next week.
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Old Dec 10, 2000, 7:37pm   #26
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Please note that,
1) Neurostock is not the same software program as Neuroshell.

2) Neurostock does not allow traditional TA to be a part of the buy/sell signal, Neuroshell does.

3) Neurostock has no optimization facility for either the indicator choice or its settings.

4) Neurostock does not support cross-correlation of stock to sector.

5) Neurostock does not have EVENT CODE as a part of its reasoning engine. This means if after its buy confirmation there is a profit warning for the stock, neurostock's confirmation still remains un-changed.(Surely this can't be right)

None of the Neural based software are designed to select stocks for you. You select them and their job is to agree or dis-agree with your selections.

Adaptive system does not have to use any Neural Optimization technology. Omn******* uses other algorithm to justify the use of a particular indicator (they call it ARM:- Adaptive reasoning something)

Conclusion:- USE a short lister (AIQ or similar package) and run the selection through a more advanced beast to confirm or reject your short listed stock. Alternativley go through all the short listed stocks manually and screen them again as I explained in my first post.

The bottom line is, if you use AIQ you must understand the indicators are not dynamic and your short-listed stocks must not be trusted. (I have explained why).

EDS must be looked as a decision support system as I explained in my previous lecture.

I use neuroshell (through a trading collegue) to invest in stocks for short term trading. Export the data from investorease in metastock or .CSV format and let neuroshell to read the data. You need at least 2 years of data)

PS Neuroshell gives you next 5 days price movement. Excellent stuff.




[This message has been edited by Dr Iraj (edited 10-12-2000).]
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Old Dec 13, 2000, 10:10am   #27
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