Deadline June

This is a discussion on Deadline June within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by Adamus Optimised result - 2001 - 2008 disktrading data: HTML Code: Instrument Total Net Profit Average Trade ...

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Old Feb 22, 2011, 12:50pm   #811
 
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Re: Gap Filler - out-of-sample comes good

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Originally Posted by Adamus View Post
Optimised result - 2001 - 2008 disktrading data:

HTML Code:
Instrument    Total Net Profit    Average Trade    Total # of Trades
$AUDJPY_DTC    22660.00    70.37    322
$AUDUSD_DTC    12080.00    36.06    335
$CHFJPY_DTC    15930.00    48.72    327
$EURCHF_DTC    13385.00    52.08    257
$EURGBP_DTC    7475.00    25.78    290
$EURJPY_DTC    22795.00    70.57    323
$EURUSD_DTC    11045.00    32.97    335
$GBPCHF_DTC    26655.00    87.97    303
$GBPJPY_DTC    27770.00    84.41    329
$GBPUSD_DTC    10850.00    34.01    319
$USDCAD_DTC    10495.00    34.30    306
$USDCHF_DTC    12140.00    36.46    333
$USDJPY_DTC    17685.00    50.67    349
COMBINED RESULTS    210965.00    51.11    4128
Out-of-sample, 2009 - 2010

HTML Code:
Instrument    Total Net Profit    Average Trade    Total # of Trades
$AUDJPY_DTC    -1355.00    -33.88    40
$AUDUSD_DTC    2305.00    52.39    44
$CHFJPY_DTC    1340.00    34.36    39
$EURCHF_DTC    3530.00    84.05    42
$EURGBP_DTC    2130.00    50.71    42
$EURJPY_DTC    1150.00    27.38    42
$EURUSD_DTC    835.00    18.15    46
$GBPCHF_DTC    11315.00    257.16    44
$GBPJPY_DTC    10320.00    234.55    44
$GBPUSD_DTC    2055.00    66.29    31
$USDCAD_DTC    380.00    10.86    35
$USDCHF_DTC    2275.00    54.17    42
$USDJPY_DTC    1600.00    37.21    43
COMBINED RESULTS    37880.00    70.94    534
Apparently the only way to improve the implementation in the script is to use a 1 tick series for the backtest so I might do that later.

Of course! I Stupido! My system takes every gap, even the 1 point gaps. I need to filter out the tiny gaps that don't even offer enough reward to cover the commission and slippage.

In the meantime I'm going to set these off tonight on the simulation account to see whether the NinjaTrader code I wrote works live.
I have 5 different tasks running in parallel right now and it's not conducive to blogging about it here but it needs to be reported on before the finest details escape me.

First I ran the out-of-sample tests on the core, standard and extended sets and the results were not good. The core set fails to profit at all, it runs up about $2000 profit in the two years out-of-sample. I ran the backtests on the standard set, so I have no real statistical comparison from backtest to out-of-sample on the core set.

The standard set's out-of-sample performance was not inspiring. It profits but drawdown is about 50% of profit and the equity curve sucks, and it looks worse and worse as you add in transaction costs. So I wouldn't trade it.

The extended set performs fantastically though. This is pretty much the most difficult outcome to get to grips with.

- the extended set out-of-sample includes 10 forex pairs that I didn't use in the backtest, so again I have no direct comparison available. I have the data for the backtest period for the instruments, but I will have to load it into NT7 to be able to test against it

- the great performance comes from the extra forex pairs in the extended set that are not in the standard set, obviously, since the standard set's performance was so mediocre. This means I actually have another set - the exotic crosses - which is the only set which I would consider trading on the basis of out-of-sample.

- the exotics have a much higher transaction cost due to spreads and slippage.

Here is the result - this is with round turn $30 transaction costs:

HTML Code:
			12 FXCM exotic OOS+15
Total Profit	$53510.00
Commission	$19170.00
Profit Factor	1.77
Max. Drawdown	$-6160.00
Sharpe Ratio	0.51
Profit/DD		8.69
Start Date		01/12/2008
End Date		31/12/2010
Total Trades	639
% Profitable	84.04%
Average Trade	$83.74
Average Win	$228.82
Average Loss	$-680.05
Ratio Win:Loss	0.34
Largest + Week	$3570
Largest - Week	$-5185
Trades / Day	0.84
Profit / Month	$2214.46
Max. Recovery	448.05 days


So my actions on this system now will be:

- load FXCM data for 2000 - 2008 for backtest comparison of exotic set

- investigate what the difference was between my first out-of-sample success for the standard set and the second strategy which produced such mediocre results: my guess is that it was the limit order entry, which was necessary to make the backtest results realistic.
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Old Feb 22, 2011, 1:40pm   #812
 
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Re: This week's 7 Habits priority setting

Adamus started this thread Still slacking on my goal setting. Hopefully once the Gap Filler system is sorted out one way or the other, I won't over-prioritise it on my Sunday afternoons. Plus I need that 7 Habits diary to write all this stuff down in, since my family and social life is equally unplanned at the moment and it all ends up being organised on the hoof.

Long Term Goals

(1) Make a million. I decided this is way too simple. I've done some forecasting to work out what's possible, when and how.

(2) Build a trading platform that does all the good things I need that I know from the various different trading platforms I've used or evaluated, e.g. TradeStation, NinjaTrader, TradingBlox as an open-source collaborative project made up of trader-developers.

Medium Term Goals

(1) Find or invent, write, test and implement trading systems.

(2) Software for foundation of trading platform - name it, get it up and running without the database performance issue it currently has dealing with millions of trades.

(3) A new one - I'm not entirely satisfied with the journal here on T2W as a resource. I would like a blog with added functionality including some privacy options, back-up options and journal 'dumping' to xml file or similar.

Short Term Goals

(1) Gap Filler system: have done some out-of-sample tests that were inconclusive and lead to two more tasks.

- sort out data needed for backtesting the extended set.

- establish what broke between the out-of-sample test run on Jan 23rd and now

(2) Other low hanging fruit in the systems ideas list I have: Joel Rensink's One Night Stand and First Strike systems. No progress last week again. I didn't even look at it.

(3) Get some kind of definitive response from British Telecom on the network problems causing the disconnects in the IB TWS logs. Last week's out-of-office replies from the support turned into "You need to use a VPN", which was too casual - I need to get an admission of failure so that the 18 month contract is voided. In the meantime I'm going to take my trading machine around to a friend's house who uses Virgin Broadband. This should demonstrate whether I can run IB TWS overnight without any disconnects, especially between 4AM and 5AM.

(4) Software - name it - haven't thought up anything good enough yet. Still to set up the project testing batch run and code a database performance test which fails if it falls below a desired level.

(5) Sofware 2: get Apache and Tomcat running together on VPS. Managed a day on this, got somewhere, not sure how close to success though.

(6) VPS for NinjaTrader - find best hosting service. If I get this done now, I might not need to worry about the lousy BT broadband.

(7) I'm putting together a spreadsheet to allow me to forecast my threshold to geometric equity growth using various input parameters. It's a tacit admission that I need more money now, so I'm modelling how many months of work are required. Parameters:
- starting account size
- pay-in to account per month to increase starting capital
- change-over date from working 9-5 paying money in, over to working on trading only and taking money out
- take-out per month when trading for a living
- days to build one trading system and get it ready to trade
- avg return per month per trading system trading 1 lot (or 100K)
- avg margin required per trading system trading 1 lot
- maximum lot size (it would be nice if this parameter became important)
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Old Feb 22, 2011, 3:50pm   #813
 
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Threshold to Geometric Compounding

Adamus started this thread A spreadsheet to allow me to forecast my threshold to geometric equity growth using various input parameters:

a tacit admission that I need more money now, so I'm forecasting how many months of salaried work are required to get my account size up to a level where it will compound exponentially despite withdrawing profits for living expenses.

It'll be easy enough to code the formula with a month per row, either adding to the account equity with deposits before the trading-for-a-living date or subtracting the living expenses after.

I'll have to decide on values for the typical average trading system, (a) how much margin per lot it requires and (b) how much profit per lot it makes.

Each month I can add profits from trading, based on the account equity available for margin and the number of systems running.

Every x number of days I can add another trading system, as I develop them.

These are the parameters:

- starting account size (what I have now)

- pay-in to account per month to increase starting capital

- change-over date from working 9-5 paying money in, over to working on trading only and taking money out

- profit-take per month when trading for a living

- average number of days to build one trading system and get it ready to trade

- avg return per month per trading system trading 1 lot (or 100K)

- avg margin required per trading system trading 1 lot

- maximum lot size (it would be nice if this parameter became important)

The big question is what to use for parameter values. All of the parameters have an effect on the rate of compounding, some surprisingly more, others less.

I don't want to add it as an attachment because I won't be able to change it if I find an error later, like just now. I'll see what I can do with it.
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Old Feb 23, 2011, 1:19pm   #814
 
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Re: Threshold to Geometric Compounding

Adamus started this thread It looks like I don't have any choice if I want to upload the spreadsheet here. It only works as an attachment. So here it is as of 2011-02-23 and I won't be able to update it after a couple of days even if I want to, i.e. it might have errors in it.

Estimating the correct profit per system per month to enter is the trickiest bit. The urge to overestimate it is strong, but it's good to see that even when using a conservative estimate, the compounding can still kick in effectively.

Estimating the margin required per system is also tricky. I'm using what I consider reasonable, i.e what I'm using now - £14K, but I need to work out the optimal fixed fraction a la Ralph Vince Mathmatics of Money Management which should allow me to bring that down.

I put in an option to use whole lots only or fractions of lots, and it makes a major difference. One big advantage of trading forex. This is the same principle that allows you to compound your savings account faster if you receive your interest on a daily basis. When rounding down how much cash you use to reflect the whole lots you trade, cash is left on the side - if you can trade fractions of lots as in forex, more is used for making money.
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Old Feb 24, 2011, 1:05pm   #815
 
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Re: Deadline June

Last chance to get on board of the NG, at least with a mini contract QG.

snap1.jpg
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Old Mar 1, 2011, 12:25am   #816
 
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Re: TurningPoints Improvements Needed

Adamus started this thread EUR/CAD - the system was obviously looking for the market to climb back up to 1.3620 but should have picked up on the downtrend from the high of 23/02/2011, or perhaps better, should have seen that the consolidation around 1.3560 was a swing high.
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Old Mar 1, 2011, 12:46am   #817
 
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Re: TurningPoints Improvements Needed

Adamus started this thread Didn't catch any of AUD/USD over the last 4 days. The swings were too fast.

And now it's picked up on it, it's obviously looking at swings that are bigger than the visually obvious ones.

.... and now it turns out it was OK after all.
Attached Thumbnails
audusd-60-min-01_03_2011.jpg   audusd-60-min-01_03_2011-2.jpg   audusd-60-min-01_03_2011-3.jpg  

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Old Mar 2, 2011, 2:00pm   #818
 
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last week's 7 Habits accomplished or not

Adamus started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adamus View Post
Short Term Goals

(1) Gap Filler system: have done some out-of-sample tests that were inconclusive and lead to two more tasks.
I needed to code something up in Java to translate the FXCM 1 min bar data into the NinjaTrader format and I got precisly nowhere with that. I only needed it to check that the performance of the exotic crosses was similar in the test period and the out-of-sample period. Since I want to find a solution to trading it across my standard set of currencies, I de-prioritised this one.

I still need to look at my very first tests which were good and where I cheated and took a sneek peek at the results for the out-of-sample which proved good. I failed to keep the code for that first script so I'm going to have to try to remember or guess what I was doing then.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adamus View Post
(2) Other low hanging fruit in the systems ideas list I have: Joel Rensink's One Night Stand and First Strike systems. No progress last week again. I didn't even look at it.
No progress.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adamus View Post
(3) Get some kind of definitive response from British Telecom on the network problems causing the disconnects in the IB TWS logs. Last week's out-of-office replies from the support turned into "You need to use a VPN", which was too casual - I need to get an admission of failure so that the 18 month contract is voided. In the meantime I'm going to take my trading machine around to a friend's house who uses Virgin Broadband. This should demonstrate whether I can run IB TWS overnight without any disconnects, especially between 4AM and 5AM.

"I have had TMC check all on the BT network and we cannot find anything that is causing this connection to fail. I am sorry that I cannot provide you with a solution to the problem."


Quote:
Originally Posted by Adamus View Post
(4) Software - name it - haven't thought up anything good enough yet. Still to set up the project testing batch run and code a database performance test which fails if it falls below a desired level.
No progress.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adamus View Post
(5) Sofware 2: get Apache and Tomcat running together on VPS.
Also no progress

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adamus View Post
(6) VPS for NinjaTrader - find best hosting service.
Also no progress

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adamus View Post
(7) I'm putting together a spreadsheet to allow me to forecast my threshold to geometric equity growth using various input parameters. It's a tacit admission that I need more money now, so I'm modelling how many months of work are required.
Did this. Very interesting. Without getting too wrapped up in it, it shows that in essence the first 5 years or so, or 10 if I use conservative values, are difficult, but then once the monthly income generated moves over the threshold to geometric increase, income will increase 10 fold every three years or so. The sobering conclusion is this: just don't take any money out until that threshold is reached, and don't take out so much that the monthly income falls back below it. I'll attach the chart, one for optimistic and one for conservative parameters.
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Old Mar 2, 2011, 3:54pm   #819
 
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Re: Threshold to Geometric Equity Increase

Adamus started this thread This is with conservative values.
Start Date 4/1/2011
Starting Account 25000
Pay-in per month before date 2500
Take-out per month after 1500
Change over date 3/15/2013
Margin per system per lot 18000
Minimum Lot Size 1
Maximum Lot Size 25
Return per month per system 600
Number of systems at start 2
Days to build one system 200
Use fractional lots Y/N y

That's starting capital of £25000 using £18000 margin per lot/100K assuming a return of £600 per system per month - for the accountants out there, that's 3.3% per month, based on 25% of my out-of-sample net return (net of commission, slippage and tax).

Fractional lot sizes is only possible in forex, not futures and it makes a big difference.

A couple of broad points to bear in mind:

- the steadier the real income, the more reality will look like this chart, so the more systems the better, the less correlation between them, the better.

- after the threshold, it all becomes easy. With these input parameters, equity grows 10 fold every 6 years.

- getting to that threshold is difficult since income is subject to bigger drawdowns from the limited no of systems.

So the interesting bit of the exercise, once one puts aside the nice idea of actually being rich, is how to get there, or how to survive the first part of the growth to geometric.

I see several factors needing to be balanced cleverly so as not to endanger the whole operation with excessive risk:

- more salaried work to build capital = more capital = more systems deployed = less risk

- more salaried work to build capital = less time to build systems = fewer systems deployed = more risk

- more systems = less risk, so minimise the effort per system built

- less system correlation = less risk, so maximise effort per system built

- less system drawdown = less risk, so maximise effort per system built

So I could slog my way through the next couple of years trying to hold down a job, build new systems and trade existing ones, but my main thought here is that building new systems is the most important part and by working 9 to 5 I would severely cut back not only the time I had to build systems, but also the effectiveness and inventiveness that I have developed over the last year.
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Old Mar 2, 2011, 4:16pm   #820
 
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Open Invitation to All Mechanical Traders

Adamus started this thread To all mechanical traders who are at the same point as me in their career - limited capital and limited time and potentially big starting-out risks: the most logical answer is to pool capital and system to reduce basic risk from drawdown in the initial phase of building up the capital and systems portfolio.

If my explanations in the preceding post make sense and you're interested, get in touch by pm and let's talk.
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Old Mar 2, 2011, 4:20pm   #821
 
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Re: TurningPoints Improvements Needed

Adamus started this thread This is a short sharp shock type of error. It's the same error that I've outlined before - the system hasn't taken into account that there's a downward trend, lower highs and lower lows.
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Old Mar 3, 2011, 12:11pm   #822
 
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Re: This week's 7 Habits priority setting

Adamus started this thread Long Term Goals

(1) Achieve compounding account growth. This was "Make a million" but aiming for geometric increases in equity makes more sense than just "a million" which is pretty arbitrary.

(2) Build a trading platform that does all the good things I need that I know from the various different trading platforms I've used or evaluated, e.g. TradeStation, NinjaTrader, TradingBlox as an open-source collaborative project made up of trader-developers.

Medium Term Goals

(1) Find or invent, write, test and implement trading systems.

(2) Software for foundation of trading platform - name it, get it up and running without the database performance issue it currently has dealing with millions of trades.

(3) Work out a better way of describing my trading activities in public. I need more functionality than T2W gives, i.e. some privacy options, back-up options, journal 'dumping' to xml file, file upload area, tags to filter my posts by when searching etc

Short Term Goals

(1) Gap Filler system - I realised the acute volatility of 2008 / 2009 needs a completely different category of filter than any that I tried so far. Back to the drawing board.

(2) Other low hanging fruit in the systems ideas list I have: Joel Rensink's One Night Stand and First Strike systems.

(3) No further response from BT. Looks like they will hold me to the contract £30 per month for another 18 months. Still need to take my trading machine around to a friend's house who uses Virgin Broadband. This should demonstrate whether I can run IB TWS overnight without any disconnects, especially between 4AM and 5AM.

(4) Software - name it - haven't thought up anything good enough yet. Still to set up the project testing batch run and code a database performance test which fails if it falls below a desired level.

(5) Sofware 2: get Apache and Tomcat running together on VPS.

(6) VPS for NinjaTrader - find best hosting service.

(7) Write a little Java program that can convert FXCM historical data to NinjaTrader format.
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Old Mar 3, 2011, 7:00pm   #823
 
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Re: Open Invitation to All Mechanical Traders

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adamus View Post
To all mechanical traders who are at the same point as me in their career - limited capital and limited time and potentially big starting-out risks: the most logical answer is to pool capital and system to reduce basic risk from drawdown in the initial phase of building up the capital and systems portfolio.

If my explanations in the preceding post make sense and you're interested, get in touch by pm and let's talk.
Very good idea, but it has to be done right. Personally I've been lucky this time, with the investors I found, but previously I've been ripped off. What gives you the guarantee that the other guy will not just take your systems and show you nothing in return, or show you a crappy system in return? That's what happened to me two years ago with some people I met on Elitetrader.com. They asked to see all my systems and then they said they were no good and disappeared. Pretty depressing.

Another problem is in how to "pool" your capital together. Do they wire it to your account or viceversa? What is the guarantee for anyone?

A better way in my opinion is what I am doing. I am basically renting my systems. I suggest ideas, and I get audited, and not only do i get to make a % of total profit, but I also learn to appraise my systems: which are good and which are not, and that is how I found out that not 100%, not 50%, but just 25% of my systems are good enough to be traded.

So, good point in doing it, but maybe you have enough capital to be the person running other people's systems. Or maybe viceversa. But it seems hard to me to do something where two people are providing the same ingredients to the recipe. Such as a situation where two people are providing systems, or two people are providing money, or even both things at the same time. Also because systems are not always compatible and usually they require an infrastructure that varies from one person to another (different broker, software, operating system, markets, data subscriptions, etc.).
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Old Mar 3, 2011, 8:42pm   #824
 
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Re: Open Invitation to All Mechanical Traders

Adamus started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
Very good idea, but it has to be done right. Personally I've been lucky this time, with the investors I found, but previously I've been ripped off. What gives you the guarantee that the other guy will not just take your systems and show you nothing in return, or show you a crappy system in return? That's what happened to me two years ago with some people I met on Elitetrader.com. They asked to see all my systems and then they said they were no good and disappeared. Pretty depressing.

Another problem is in how to "pool" your capital together. Do they wire it to your account or viceversa? What is the guarantee for anyone?

A better way in my opinion is what I am doing. I am basically renting my systems. I suggest ideas, and I get audited, and not only do i get to make a % of total profit, but I also learn to appraise my systems: which are good and which are not, and that is how I found out that not 100%, not 50%, but just 25% of my systems are good enough to be traded.

So, good point in doing it, but maybe you have enough capital to be the person running other people's systems. Or maybe viceversa. But it seems hard to me to do something where two people are providing the same ingredients to the recipe. Such as a situation where two people are providing systems, or two people are providing money, or even both things at the same time. Also because systems are not always compatible and usually they require an infrastructure that varies from one person to another (different broker, software, operating system, markets, data subscriptions, etc.).
I don't actually know what the deal is that you struck with your investors. Do you get a percentage of the profits annually? Can you re-invest the profit in the same account and build up a share?

Regarding two or more people operating as a unit, it would have to be done as a company or a fund with the legal framework that treats the people as investors and it would have to be run by a third party lawyer or accountant with power of attorney to make the payments. That's the easy bit.

As you say, it would be hard for 2 cooks to provide the same ingredients. But I figure if someone is willing to go to length of setting up and paying for the administrative costs, then they are unlikely to disappear with my code. I think I would be convinced to go into partnership with someone if I saw their backtest results and out-of-sample results and preferably some live results and broker statements, although still I would have to trust that the person hadn't cheated on the out-of-sample testing. Maybe a six month or year period of forward testing is required first.

Last but not least all parties involved have to be flexible enough to agree on a trading infrastructure too, as you also mentioned, because everyone will want to be able to verify the systems are trading correctly and that nobody is using the account to play the markets themselves.

All in all it's a massive investment of time and effort to put it in place, so I honestly don't think anyone is even going to ask me about it but I figured there's nothing to lose by asking.
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Old Mar 3, 2011, 10:03pm   #825
 
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Re: Open Invitation to All Mechanical Traders

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I don't actually know what the deal is that you struck with your investors. Do you get a percentage of the profits annually? Can you re-invest the profit in the same account and build up a share?

Regarding two or more people operating as a unit, it would have to be done as a company or a fund with the legal framework that treats the people as investors and it would have to be run by a third party lawyer or accountant with power of attorney to make the payments. That's the easy bit.

As you say, it would be hard for 2 cooks to provide the same ingredients. But I figure if someone is willing to go to length of setting up and paying for the administrative costs, then they are unlikely to disappear with my code. I think I would be convinced to go into partnership with someone if I saw their backtest results and out-of-sample results and preferably some live results and broker statements, although still I would have to trust that the person hadn't cheated on the out-of-sample testing. Maybe a six month or year period of forward testing is required first.

Last but not least all parties involved have to be flexible enough to agree on a trading infrastructure too, as you also mentioned, because everyone will want to be able to verify the systems are trading correctly and that nobody is using the account to play the markets themselves.

All in all it's a massive investment of time and effort to put it in place, so I honestly don't think anyone is even going to ask me about it but I figured there's nothing to lose by asking.
Yes, it was a very complicated deal to strike, and I was lucky, because the investors turned out to be a good match for me (but it was an unlikely thing to happen). I get a share of the profits, let's not say exactly how much for privacy purposes. Also, we recently made a deal whereby, if we're scaling up, I only get half of my share (on a "high water mark" monthly basis), and the other half of my share (together with their entire share) goes towards building up the "profit cushion" needed to withstand the potential drawdown. Then, if we'll stop building up the profit cushion, everyone will get their share of the profit. The money gone into the profit cushion will stay there until we're trading together. I will only get it at the end, when I retire (or if they retire). This complex arrangement was devised because I can't just be expected to go on for years without ever getting a dime, with the risk of never seeing a dime - in case something unexpected should happen, such as them dying, going into a coma, going crazy, or, more likely, getting into a fight with me.

I suppose you're being ironic when you say "that's the easy bit". A "fund", a "legal framework", a "lawyer/accountant"...it will be very unlikely that you'll get started with all that expensive infrastructure (we have none of that) without even showing each other your systems, and the minute you do that, as I said before, you risk getting screwed.

Overall, if you have the right financial and mental balance, it would be best to do it all alone. But I had neither. So it was easy for me to take the leap. After blowing out my account once too many (this time with borrowed money), I was desperate. But this time i was lucky. They didn't just take my systems and disappeared. However, the probability of that situation happening are 10% or less in my opinion. In all other cases you're either getting into a partnership with incompetent people, or with people who will screw you, one way or another.

Regarding your offer to all automated traders, a while ago I was thinking of proposing a similar thing to you, whereby I'd provide the systems and you would provide the capital: 40k pounds is not bad at all. But you were lucky because I met the investors first... yeah, "lucky" because I was a lousy money manager back then and maybe still am, and would have risked losing your money. For example, I started out by trading many crappy systems, but they said "first show us the results, then we'll increase the investment" and that saved us, because we only have increased it now, after I have taken as long as six months to figure out which ones are my good systems.

Personally, even though you have a good capital, I would suggest to you to look for investors to whom you'll offer your systems. But you need experts, not people who know nothing about trading or they won't teach you anything, and it will be like being alone, and having asked a loan from your bank.

Last edited by Yamato; Mar 4, 2011 at 1:05pm.
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