Elliott Wave EUR/USD

This is a discussion on Elliott Wave EUR/USD within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Hello JahDave, Just thought I would post the chart here that you referred to in case someone wants to see ...

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Old Aug 5, 2010, 4:10am   #161
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

Hello JahDave,

Just thought I would post the chart here that you referred to in case someone wants to see it.

FX4Newbies

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My friend over at FX4Newbies just posted a triangle pattern that I had not noticed before so I am putting up a Euro 1 hour chart with it on it. In Elliott Wave land a triangle is always the next to last pattern in a wave sequence. For example. If there is an ABC pattern then a triangle will always be the B wave and if there is a 12345 pattern then a triangle will always be wave 4. So with that in mind then the Euro should make one more break down before a partial retracement back up of the down move, and then make another five waves down.
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Old Aug 5, 2010, 2:44pm   #162
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

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Originally Posted by JahDave View Post
My friend over at FX4Newbies just posted a triangle pattern that I had not noticed before so I am putting up a Euro 1 hour chart with it on it. In Elliott Wave land a triangle is always the next to last pattern in a wave sequence. For example. If there is an ABC pattern then a triangle will always be the B wave and if there is a 12345 pattern then a triangle will always be wave 4. So with that in mind then the Euro should make one more break down before a partial retracement back up of the down move, and then make another five waves down.
The Euro did exactly what it should have done. It pushed out of the bottom of the triangle for wave five and is completing and ABC back up. It should start back down for five waves any time now.
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Old Aug 5, 2010, 3:46pm   #163
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

Hey Dave,

We actually agreed with price. That is always good . Been looking at Usd-Jpy though.

Take care,

FX4Newbies

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The Euro did exactly what it should have done. It pushed out of the bottom of the triangle for wave five and is completing and ABC back up. It should start back down for five waves any time now.
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Old Aug 5, 2010, 9:38pm   #164
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

Good thread. You're doing a good job.
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Old Aug 6, 2010, 12:51am   #165
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

I agree.

Take care,

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Good thread. You're doing a good job.
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Old Aug 6, 2010, 1:17am   #166
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

JahDave started this thread Thank you both for the nice comments.

Now for today the Euro seems to be following a nice normal wave progression. The tricky part of wave analysis is that sometimes you have something developing that can be several patterns and I tend to decide which one it is too early sometimes and I am wrong and make a bad trade. I mentioned that because it is very easy to spot a wave pattern developing and overlook the other possible patterns that might be developing. Anyway enough rambling.....
Now for the Euro. I am putting up an hourly chart and if compared to the one from yesterday the Euro seems on track right now to make the five waves down. I have three red support lines added in based on Fibo levels and i think the most likely one that will be hit is the 1.3005. That is how I'm playing it.

Good trading everyone,
Dave
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Old Aug 10, 2010, 10:51pm   #167
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

JahDave started this thread
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Originally Posted by JahDave View Post
Thank you both for the nice comments.

Now for today the Euro seems to be following a nice normal wave progression. The tricky part of wave analysis is that sometimes you have something developing that can be several patterns and I tend to decide which one it is too early sometimes and I am wrong and make a bad trade. I mentioned that because it is very easy to spot a wave pattern developing and overlook the other possible patterns that might be developing. Anyway enough rambling.....
Now for the Euro. I am putting up an hourly chart and if compared to the one from yesterday the Euro seems on track right now to make the five waves down. I have three red support lines added in based on Fibo levels and i think the most likely one that will be hit is the 1.3005. That is how I'm playing it.

Good trading everyone,
Dave
Well I got the first part of that move right and the last part wrong.

Now for what is currently unfolding. I'm putting up an Ichimoku 30 minute euro chart. I have started using Ichimoku because of my friend Paul. His thread is "Some of My Trade Forecasts" and he has some killer S&R levels and is an expert in Ichi charting. I thought it was very interesting that the Euro bounced right up to test the top of the cloud and we'll see if that holds. I suspect it will. Also I am putting up my regular euro day and three hour charts' and my thoughts about those are as follows. First notice that the Euro has broken through the Andrews Pitchfork support. I think this is significant. Second, I stated after the first leg of this A wave I thought this move had a lot of momentum and the third leg should too. It even surprised me how extended it was. Third, I still suspect that we are just starting a B wave on the bigger scale, but it is possible this could be the entire correction for the Euro. The only way to know this is to analyze the wave structure down as it unfolds, so I'll give my usual thoughts, right or wrong.
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eur_usd_08_10_2010_ichi.png   eur_usd_08_10_2010_day.png   eur_usd_08_10_2010_3hr.png  

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Old Aug 11, 2010, 5:02am   #168
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

JahDave started this thread Here is my take on the USD_CHF,

I am posting an hour and a daily chart here so please ask any questions if you don't understand the implications. The cool part about this is that it pretty much lines up with my Euro thoughts about the Euro just starting a large B wave. It wasn't until I finished charting out the Frank until I noticed that. One more thing........I have the dollar slide finished with an ending diagonal and a pretty big overshoot on the C or 3 wave of that. The Elliott Wave theory book says that the third wave in a triangle or ending diagonal can over or undershoot support or resistance.

Good Trading All,
Dave

One more thing here. The top resistance line can be redrawn to the current two tops, in which case the dollar could drop a long way before the medium rebound takes place. I am currently long USD but am protecting my profit and I did not want anyone to take a large loss on this pair if that is the case.
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Last edited by JahDave; Aug 11, 2010 at 5:08am.
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Old Aug 12, 2010, 11:16am   #169
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

Glad you find the Pitchfork useful JahDave .

Take care,

FX4Newbies

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Well I got the first part of that move right and the last part wrong.

Now for what is currently unfolding. I'm putting up an Ichimoku 30 minute euro chart. I have started using Ichimoku because of my friend Paul. His thread is "Some of My Trade Forecasts" and he has some killer S&R levels and is an expert in Ichi charting. I thought it was very interesting that the Euro bounced right up to test the top of the cloud and we'll see if that holds. I suspect it will. Also I am putting up my regular euro day and three hour charts' and my thoughts about those are as follows. First notice that the Euro has broken through the Andrews Pitchfork support. I think this is significant. Second, I stated after the first leg of this A wave I thought this move had a lot of momentum and the third leg should too. It even surprised me how extended it was. Third, I still suspect that we are just starting a B wave on the bigger scale, but it is possible this could be the entire correction for the Euro. The only way to know this is to analyze the wave structure down as it unfolds, so I'll give my usual thoughts, right or wrong.
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Old Aug 13, 2010, 2:15am   #170
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

JahDave started this thread Well it didn't take long for the break below the trendline to accelerate. I have labeled the 1 hour chart as a completed wave 1 but that is not guaranteed, that is only what I think the best odds are. The reasons I feel this way are not Elliott Wave related. The first is that after a trendline break a currency pair usually goes back up and tests the old trendline. The second is that on the daily chart there is a really nice doji. From my experience candlestick patterns on the daily chart carry a lot of weight. Now from an Elliott Wave perspective wave 2 is usually a deeper retracement than a wave 4 will be, but that is a guideline and not a rule.
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